Strong Mexican assertions of sovereignty under President Claudia Sheinbaum, combined with sustained bilateral security cooperation rather than unilateral U.S. military action, anchor trader expectations that no invasion will occur before year-end. Recent joint anti-drone operations along the border, intelligence-supported Mexican strikes against cartels, and U.S. emphasis on designations, financial measures, and sea interdictions reflect coordinated enforcement without ground incursions into Mexican territory. U.S. officials have signaled preference for partnership while reserving options against cartels, yet no Authorization for Use of Military Force has advanced and public opposition in Mexico remains high. With the calendar advancing rapidly, only a dramatic shift—such as an unforeseen major cross-border incident prompting congressional authorization or abrupt policy reversal—could alter the near-certain consensus reflected in current pricing.