Mary Peltola leads the Alaska Senate race in trader pricing following her 49.5% finish in the August 18 nonpartisan primary, ahead of incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan at 41.4%. Both advanced under the top-four system to a November 3 general election that uses ranked-choice voting, alongside two additional Republicans. Peltola’s primary margin and subsequent polling averages near or slightly above 50% reflect her established name recognition from the House seat, strong fundraising, and appeal among independents in a state that has shown openness to crossover support. Sullivan retains the advantages of incumbency and Republican base strength in a contest national observers rate as a tossup, though the fragmented Republican field on the ballot limits vote consolidation options before ranked-choice tabulation. No major new developments have shifted positioning since primary results were certified in early September.