Heavy rainfall and associated northerly winds from an active weather system are anchoring trader consensus around a 22°C minimum in Tokyo on September 21, with models showing strong agreement on overnight lows near 22–23°C amid near-100% cloud cover and high humidity. Recent observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency confirm persistent precipitation and stable boundary-layer conditions that limit diurnal cooling, consistent with ensemble guidance projecting the low within a narrow 21–23°C band. This setup favors the leading 22°C outcome at 75% implied probability while assigning only modest odds to 21°C, as any slight model shift in wind or rainfall timing could nudge the minimum lower. Updated forecasts from the next model runs will provide the key data point for resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 21?
22°C 74%
21°C 22%
20°C 6%
19°C 3%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 21, 2026
17°C or below
1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
3%
20°C
6%
21°C
22%
22°C
74%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 74%
21°C 22%
20°C 6%
19°C 3%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 21, 2026
17°C or below
$31 Обс.
1%
18°C
$442 Обс.
<1%
19°C
$486 Обс.
3%
20°C
$388 Обс.
6%
21°C
$659 Обс.
22%
22°C
$1,384 Обс.
74%
23°C
$1,190 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$31 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$31 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$31 Обс.
<1%
27°C or higher
$31 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Heavy rainfall and associated northerly winds from an active weather system are anchoring trader consensus around a 22°C minimum in Tokyo on September 21, with models showing strong agreement on overnight lows near 22–23°C amid near-100% cloud cover and high humidity. Recent observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency confirm persistent precipitation and stable boundary-layer conditions that limit diurnal cooling, consistent with ensemble guidance projecting the low within a narrow 21–23°C band. This setup favors the leading 22°C outcome at 75% implied probability while assigning only modest odds to 21°C, as any slight model shift in wind or rainfall timing could nudge the minimum lower. Updated forecasts from the next model runs will provide the key data point for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$4,703Дата завершення
Sep 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Heavy rainfall and associated northerly winds from an active weather system are anchoring trader consensus around a 22°C minimum in Tokyo on September 21, with models showing strong agreement on overnight lows near 22–23°C amid near-100% cloud cover and high humidity. Recent observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency confirm persistent precipitation and stable boundary-layer conditions that limit diurnal cooling, consistent with ensemble guidance projecting the low within a narrow 21–23°C band. This setup favors the leading 22°C outcome at 75% implied probability while assigning only modest odds to 21°C, as any slight model shift in wind or rainfall timing could nudge the minimum lower. Updated forecasts from the next model runs will provide the key data point for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$4,703Дата завершення
Sep 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Heavy rainfall and associated northerly winds from an active weather system are anchoring trader consensus around a 22°C minimum in Tokyo on September 21, with models showing strong agreement on overnight lows near 22–23°C amid near-100% cloud cover and high humidity. Recent observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency confirm persistent precipitation and stable boundary-layer conditions that limit diurnal cooling, consistent with ensemble guidance projecting the low within a narrow 21–23°C band. This setup favors the leading 22°C outcome at 75% implied probability while assigning only modest odds to 21°C, as any slight model shift in wind or rainfall timing could nudge the minimum lower. Updated forecasts from the next model runs will provide the key data point for resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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