**Recent Israeli polls place Yisrael Beiteinu (led by Avigdor Lieberman) in a steady 6–9 seat range ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset election, translating to roughly 5–7.5% of the national vote.** This positioning underpins the market’s leading 6–7% outcome at 41% implied probability. Multiple mid-September surveys from Kantar, Midgam, Lazar, and others show the party holding 7–9 seats on average, with limited movement over the past month. Lieberman’s party maintains support among secular and Russian-speaking voters while operating in the opposition and emphasizing security and anti-Haredi policies. It recently signed a surplus-vote agreement with the Together list, which could marginally improve seat efficiency but does not alter the underlying vote-share trajectory. The broader context—a highly fragmented field featuring rising new lists such as Yashar and a Netanyahu-led bloc hovering near but below a majority—has kept most mid-sized parties, including Yisrael Beiteinu, in a narrow band. No major scandals, leadership changes, or late-breaking events have shifted its polling in the past 30 days, leaving current trader consensus aligned with the stable polling average.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено6-7% 43%
7-8% 18%
<5% 18%
5-6% 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
<5%
18%
5-6%
20%
6-7%
42%
7-8%
18%
8%+
10%
6-7% 43%
7-8% 18%
<5% 18%
5-6% 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
<5%
$942 Обс.
18%
5-6%
$159 Обс.
20%
6-7%
$243 Обс.
42%
7-8%
$158 Обс.
18%
8%+
$67 Обс.
10%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yisrael Beiteinu party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yisrael Beiteinu's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yisrael Beiteinu passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yisrael Beiteinu contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yisrael Beiteinu merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Recent Israeli polls place Yisrael Beiteinu (led by Avigdor Lieberman) in a steady 6–9 seat range ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset election, translating to roughly 5–7.5% of the national vote.** This positioning underpins the market’s leading 6–7% outcome at 41% implied probability.
Multiple mid-September surveys from Kantar, Midgam, Lazar, and others show the party holding 7–9 seats on average, with limited movement over the past month. Lieberman’s party maintains support among secular and Russian-speaking voters while operating in the opposition and emphasizing security and anti-Haredi policies. It recently signed a surplus-vote agreement with the Together list, which could marginally improve seat efficiency but does not alter the underlying vote-share trajectory.
The broader context—a highly fragmented field featuring rising new lists such as Yashar and a Netanyahu-led bloc hovering near but below a majority—has kept most mid-sized parties, including Yisrael Beiteinu, in a narrow band. No major scandals, leadership changes, or late-breaking events have shifted its polling in the past 30 days, leaving current trader consensus aligned with the stable polling average.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yisrael Beiteinu party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yisrael Beiteinu's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yisrael Beiteinu passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yisrael Beiteinu contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yisrael Beiteinu merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yisrael Beiteinu party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yisrael Beiteinu's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yisrael Beiteinu passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yisrael Beiteinu contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yisrael Beiteinu merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Ринок відкрито: Sep 8, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,569Дата завершення
Oct 27, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 8, 2026, 2:33 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yisrael Beiteinu party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yisrael Beiteinu's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yisrael Beiteinu passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yisrael Beiteinu contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yisrael Beiteinu merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Recent Israeli polls place Yisrael Beiteinu (led by Avigdor Lieberman) in a steady 6–9 seat range ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset election, translating to roughly 5–7.5% of the national vote.** This positioning underpins the market’s leading 6–7% outcome at 41% implied probability.
Multiple mid-September surveys from Kantar, Midgam, Lazar, and others show the party holding 7–9 seats on average, with limited movement over the past month. Lieberman’s party maintains support among secular and Russian-speaking voters while operating in the opposition and emphasizing security and anti-Haredi policies. It recently signed a surplus-vote agreement with the Together list, which could marginally improve seat efficiency but does not alter the underlying vote-share trajectory.
The broader context—a highly fragmented field featuring rising new lists such as Yashar and a Netanyahu-led bloc hovering near but below a majority—has kept most mid-sized parties, including Yisrael Beiteinu, in a narrow band. No major scandals, leadership changes, or late-breaking events have shifted its polling in the past 30 days, leaving current trader consensus aligned with the stable polling average.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yisrael Beiteinu party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yisrael Beiteinu's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yisrael Beiteinu passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yisrael Beiteinu contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yisrael Beiteinu merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yisrael Beiteinu party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yisrael Beiteinu's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yisrael Beiteinu passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yisrael Beiteinu contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yisrael Beiteinu merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Обсяг
$1,569Дата завершення
Oct 27, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 8, 2026, 2:33 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Recent Israeli polls place Yisrael Beiteinu (led by Avigdor Lieberman) in a steady 6–9 seat range ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset election, translating to roughly 5–7.5% of the national vote.** This positioning underpins the market’s leading 6–7% outcome at 41% implied probability. Multiple mid-September surveys from Kantar, Midgam, Lazar, and others show the party holding 7–9 seats on average, with limited movement over the past month. Lieberman’s party maintains support among secular and Russian-speaking voters while operating in the opposition and emphasizing security and anti-Haredi policies. It recently signed a surplus-vote agreement with the Together list, which could marginally improve seat efficiency but does not alter the underlying vote-share trajectory. The broader context—a highly fragmented field featuring rising new lists such as Yashar and a Netanyahu-led bloc hovering near but below a majority—has kept most mid-sized parties, including Yisrael Beiteinu, in a narrow band. No major scandals, leadership changes, or late-breaking events have shifted its polling in the past 30 days, leaving current trader consensus aligned with the stable polling average.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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