**The Green Party's projected vote share in the October 8 by-election centers on the 35-40% range due to strong local momentum and the high-profile candidacy of leader Zack Polanski.** Recent May 2026 Camden council results across overlapping wards showed the Greens at 27-29%, close behind Labour, reflecting gains from one to ten councillors in the area since 2024. Projections from models like PollCheck place the Greens at 28-38% in the by-election itself, with Labour narrowly ahead on 40-42%, driven by the constituency's progressive urban demographics and Polanski's visibility. The contest is viewed as a two-way race between Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali and the Greens after nominations closed, with other parties marginal. Traders appear to price in continued Green momentum from recent London by-election and local successes, tempered by Labour's incumbency advantage and the short campaign timeline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено35-40% 37%
30-35% 27%
25-30% 26%
<20% 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 8, 2026
<20%
10%
20-25%
6%
25-30%
26%
30-35%
27%
35-40%
37%
40%+
6%
35-40% 37%
30-35% 27%
25-30% 26%
<20% 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 8, 2026
<20%
$534 Обс.
10%
20-25%
$395 Обс.
6%
25-30%
$554 Обс.
26%
30-35%
$438 Обс.
27%
35-40%
$759 Обс.
37%
40%+
$314 Обс.
6%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).**The Green Party's projected vote share in the October 8 by-election centers on the 35-40% range due to strong local momentum and the high-profile candidacy of leader Zack Polanski.** Recent May 2026 Camden council results across overlapping wards showed the Greens at 27-29%, close behind Labour, reflecting gains from one to ten councillors in the area since 2024. Projections from models like PollCheck place the Greens at 28-38% in the by-election itself, with Labour narrowly ahead on 40-42%, driven by the constituency's progressive urban demographics and Polanski's visibility. The contest is viewed as a two-way race between Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali and the Greens after nominations closed, with other parties marginal. Traders appear to price in continued Green momentum from recent London by-election and local successes, tempered by Labour's incumbency advantage and the short campaign timeline.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Ринок відкрито: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,994Дата завершення
Oct 8, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).**The Green Party's projected vote share in the October 8 by-election centers on the 35-40% range due to strong local momentum and the high-profile candidacy of leader Zack Polanski.** Recent May 2026 Camden council results across overlapping wards showed the Greens at 27-29%, close behind Labour, reflecting gains from one to ten councillors in the area since 2024. Projections from models like PollCheck place the Greens at 28-38% in the by-election itself, with Labour narrowly ahead on 40-42%, driven by the constituency's progressive urban demographics and Polanski's visibility. The contest is viewed as a two-way race between Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali and the Greens after nominations closed, with other parties marginal. Traders appear to price in continued Green momentum from recent London by-election and local successes, tempered by Labour's incumbency advantage and the short campaign timeline.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Обсяг
$2,994Дата завершення
Oct 8, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**The Green Party's projected vote share in the October 8 by-election centers on the 35-40% range due to strong local momentum and the high-profile candidacy of leader Zack Polanski.** Recent May 2026 Camden council results across overlapping wards showed the Greens at 27-29%, close behind Labour, reflecting gains from one to ten councillors in the area since 2024. Projections from models like PollCheck place the Greens at 28-38% in the by-election itself, with Labour narrowly ahead on 40-42%, driven by the constituency's progressive urban demographics and Polanski's visibility. The contest is viewed as a two-way race between Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali and the Greens after nominations closed, with other parties marginal. Traders appear to price in continued Green momentum from recent London by-election and local successes, tempered by Labour's incumbency advantage and the short campaign timeline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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