**Recent polling and Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system with 78 constituencies continue to favor substantial overhang and leveling mandates, pushing trader consensus toward 163+ seats at 62%.** Late-campaign surveys show a fragmented field—Linke near 21–25%, CDU around 20%, AfD 17–18%, Greens 15–16%, SPD near 12%, and BSW hovering at or below the 5% threshold—creating conditions for parties to secure more direct mandates than their second-vote share warrants. This dynamic has expanded the chamber from 147 seats in 2021 to 159 in 2023, and the same structural pressures remain intact ahead of the September 20 vote. Higher projected turnout and competitive eastern and western districts further support additional leveling seats, keeping the largest ranges as the market’s clear leader while smaller totals stay in single digits.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено158–162 68.1%
163+ 54%
143–147 4.8%
153–157 2.2%
$23,329 Обс.
$23,329 Обс.
Sep 20, 2026
<143
1%
143–147
15%
148–152
1%
153–157
2%
158–162
56%
163+
40%
158–162 68.1%
163+ 54%
143–147 4.8%
153–157 2.2%
$23,329 Обс.
$23,329 Обс.
Sep 20, 2026
<143
$3,996 Обс.
1%
143–147
$2,287 Обс.
15%
148–152
$958 Обс.
1%
153–157
$1,109 Обс.
2%
158–162
$2,674 Обс.
56%
163+
$12,304 Обс.
40%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent polling and Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system with 78 constituencies continue to favor substantial overhang and leveling mandates, pushing trader consensus toward 163+ seats at 62%.** Late-campaign surveys show a fragmented field—Linke near 21–25%, CDU around 20%, AfD 17–18%, Greens 15–16%, SPD near 12%, and BSW hovering at or below the 5% threshold—creating conditions for parties to secure more direct mandates than their second-vote share warrants. This dynamic has expanded the chamber from 147 seats in 2021 to 159 in 2023, and the same structural pressures remain intact ahead of the September 20 vote. Higher projected turnout and competitive eastern and western districts further support additional leveling seats, keeping the largest ranges as the market’s clear leader while smaller totals stay in single digits.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$23,329Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent polling and Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system with 78 constituencies continue to favor substantial overhang and leveling mandates, pushing trader consensus toward 163+ seats at 62%.** Late-campaign surveys show a fragmented field—Linke near 21–25%, CDU around 20%, AfD 17–18%, Greens 15–16%, SPD near 12%, and BSW hovering at or below the 5% threshold—creating conditions for parties to secure more direct mandates than their second-vote share warrants. This dynamic has expanded the chamber from 147 seats in 2021 to 159 in 2023, and the same structural pressures remain intact ahead of the September 20 vote. Higher projected turnout and competitive eastern and western districts further support additional leveling seats, keeping the largest ranges as the market’s clear leader while smaller totals stay in single digits.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$23,329Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling and Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system with 78 constituencies continue to favor substantial overhang and leveling mandates, pushing trader consensus toward 163+ seats at 62%.** Late-campaign surveys show a fragmented field—Linke near 21–25%, CDU around 20%, AfD 17–18%, Greens 15–16%, SPD near 12%, and BSW hovering at or below the 5% threshold—creating conditions for parties to secure more direct mandates than their second-vote share warrants. This dynamic has expanded the chamber from 147 seats in 2021 to 159 in 2023, and the same structural pressures remain intact ahead of the September 20 vote. Higher projected turnout and competitive eastern and western districts further support additional leveling seats, keeping the largest ranges as the market’s clear leader while smaller totals stay in single digits.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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