**Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter, is polling near Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 Knesset election.** Recent surveys show fluctuating results, with some placing the party at roughly 2.1% and others projecting four seats, reflecting its competition for voters mainly from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit. The party’s independent run after rejecting a merger with Smotrich’s list, combined with its positions supporting Netanyahu while opposing ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions, has contributed to volatility in small-party estimates. Traders appear to weigh these inconsistent early-September polls and the typical challenges new lists face in converting support into a final vote share above or below key bands.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено4-5% 38%
3.25-4% 37%
5%+ 34%
<2.5% 28%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
<2.5%
47%
2.5-3.25%
28%
3.25-4%
37%
4-5%
38%
5%+
34%
4-5% 38%
3.25-4% 37%
5%+ 34%
<2.5% 28%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
<2.5%
$20 Обс.
47%
2.5-3.25%
$0 Обс.
28%
3.25-4%
$0 Обс.
37%
4-5%
$0 Обс.
38%
5%+
$0 Обс.
34%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter, is polling near Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 Knesset election.** Recent surveys show fluctuating results, with some placing the party at roughly 2.1% and others projecting four seats, reflecting its competition for voters mainly from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit. The party’s independent run after rejecting a merger with Smotrich’s list, combined with its positions supporting Netanyahu while opposing ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions, has contributed to volatility in small-party estimates. Traders appear to weigh these inconsistent early-September polls and the typical challenges new lists face in converting support into a final vote share above or below key bands.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Ринок відкрито: Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Обсяг
$20Дата завершення
Nov 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).**Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter, is polling near Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 Knesset election.** Recent surveys show fluctuating results, with some placing the party at roughly 2.1% and others projecting four seats, reflecting its competition for voters mainly from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit. The party’s independent run after rejecting a merger with Smotrich’s list, combined with its positions supporting Netanyahu while opposing ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions, has contributed to volatility in small-party estimates. Traders appear to weigh these inconsistent early-September polls and the typical challenges new lists face in converting support into a final vote share above or below key bands.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Обсяг
$20Дата завершення
Nov 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter, is polling near Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 Knesset election.** Recent surveys show fluctuating results, with some placing the party at roughly 2.1% and others projecting four seats, reflecting its competition for voters mainly from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit. The party’s independent run after rejecting a merger with Smotrich’s list, combined with its positions supporting Netanyahu while opposing ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions, has contributed to volatility in small-party estimates. Traders appear to weigh these inconsistent early-September polls and the typical challenges new lists face in converting support into a final vote share above or below key bands.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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