Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying substantial 60% enriched uranium stockpiles and halting visible activities. IAEA inspectors have been denied access since mid-2025, leaving material status and any resumption unverifiable, while a June 2026 memorandum calling for supervised down-blending has stalled. The September 2026 IAEA board referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for non-compliance underscores these verification gaps and reinforces trader consensus on major technical and political barriers to breakout by end-2026. A rapid, undetected weaponization push remains possible if access stays blocked and internal debates shift policy, though such moves would likely face detection risks and renewed external pressure.