Celina Leão (PP), the current governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, leads the Distrito Federal gubernatorial race with an 83.5% implied probability. Recent polls from Real Time Big Data and Quaest show her at 35% in first-round scenarios including all candidates and rising to 46-50% when José Roberto Arruda is excluded, positioning her for a potential first-round victory. Arruda (PSD), her primary rival and a former governor, sits at 10.2% after the TRE-DF unanimously rejected his candidacy registration over prior administrative improbity convictions; he is appealing to the TSE. Leandro Grass (PT) trails at around 20%, with Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, and minor candidates far behind. Leão benefits from incumbency, a broad coalition backing, and strong approval ratings ahead of the October 4 first round.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFederal District Governor Election Winner
Federal District Governor Election Winner
Celina Leão 84%
Arruda 10.5%
Leandro Grass 5.0%
Elisson <1%
$16,634 Обс.
$16,634 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Celina Leão
84%
Arruda
11%
Leandro Grass
5%
Elisson
1%
Paula Belmonte
1%
Professor Robson
<1%
Cappelli
<1%
Kiko Caputo
<1%
Expedito Mendonça
<1%
Professora Samara Mineiro
<1%
Celina Leão 84%
Arruda 10.5%
Leandro Grass 5.0%
Elisson <1%
$16,634 Обс.
$16,634 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Celina Leão
$9,534 Обс.
84%
Arruda
$1,900 Обс.
11%
Leandro Grass
$1,568 Обс.
5%
Elisson
$543 Обс.
1%
Paula Belmonte
$526 Обс.
1%
Professor Robson
$525 Обс.
<1%
Cappelli
$528 Обс.
<1%
Kiko Caputo
$490 Обс.
<1%
Expedito Mendonça
$536 Обс.
<1%
Professora Samara Mineiro
$485 Обс.
<1%
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão (PP), the current governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, leads the Distrito Federal gubernatorial race with an 83.5% implied probability. Recent polls from Real Time Big Data and Quaest show her at 35% in first-round scenarios including all candidates and rising to 46-50% when José Roberto Arruda is excluded, positioning her for a potential first-round victory. Arruda (PSD), her primary rival and a former governor, sits at 10.2% after the TRE-DF unanimously rejected his candidacy registration over prior administrative improbity convictions; he is appealing to the TSE. Leandro Grass (PT) trails at around 20%, with Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, and minor candidates far behind. Leão benefits from incumbency, a broad coalition backing, and strong approval ratings ahead of the October 4 first round.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ET
Обсяг
$16,634Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão (PP), the current governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, leads the Distrito Federal gubernatorial race with an 83.5% implied probability. Recent polls from Real Time Big Data and Quaest show her at 35% in first-round scenarios including all candidates and rising to 46-50% when José Roberto Arruda is excluded, positioning her for a potential first-round victory. Arruda (PSD), her primary rival and a former governor, sits at 10.2% after the TRE-DF unanimously rejected his candidacy registration over prior administrative improbity convictions; he is appealing to the TSE. Leandro Grass (PT) trails at around 20%, with Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, and minor candidates far behind. Leão benefits from incumbency, a broad coalition backing, and strong approval ratings ahead of the October 4 first round.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Обсяг
$16,634Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Celina Leão (PP), the current governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, leads the Distrito Federal gubernatorial race with an 83.5% implied probability. Recent polls from Real Time Big Data and Quaest show her at 35% in first-round scenarios including all candidates and rising to 46-50% when José Roberto Arruda is excluded, positioning her for a potential first-round victory. Arruda (PSD), her primary rival and a former governor, sits at 10.2% after the TRE-DF unanimously rejected his candidacy registration over prior administrative improbity convictions; he is appealing to the TSE. Leandro Grass (PT) trails at around 20%, with Paula Belmonte, Ricardo Cappelli, and minor candidates far behind. Leão benefits from incumbency, a broad coalition backing, and strong approval ratings ahead of the October 4 first round.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання