Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of People’s Liberation Army leadership, including the 2026 investigations of Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli for disciplinary violations, have removed dozens of senior officers and reinforced centralized party authority over the military. Credible reporting has found no confirmed coup attempts or organized challenges through mid-2026, with earlier social media rumors of plots or troop movements lacking verification from official or independent sources. This pattern of elite discipline ahead of the 2027 Party Congress underpins trader consensus on a low probability of any widely reported coup attempt by year-end. Remote variables that could still shift outcomes include acute leadership health events or sudden, undetected realignments within remaining military or party networks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено3% шанс
$155,383 Обс.
$155,383 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
3% шанс
$155,383 Обс.
$155,383 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of People’s Liberation Army leadership, including the 2026 investigations of Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli for disciplinary violations, have removed dozens of senior officers and reinforced centralized party authority over the military. Credible reporting has found no confirmed coup attempts or organized challenges through mid-2026, with earlier social media rumors of plots or troop movements lacking verification from official or independent sources. This pattern of elite discipline ahead of the 2027 Party Congress underpins trader consensus on a low probability of any widely reported coup attempt by year-end. Remote variables that could still shift outcomes include acute leadership health events or sudden, undetected realignments within remaining military or party networks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Обсяг
$155,383Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of People’s Liberation Army leadership, including the 2026 investigations of Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli for disciplinary violations, have removed dozens of senior officers and reinforced centralized party authority over the military. Credible reporting has found no confirmed coup attempts or organized challenges through mid-2026, with earlier social media rumors of plots or troop movements lacking verification from official or independent sources. This pattern of elite discipline ahead of the 2027 Party Congress underpins trader consensus on a low probability of any widely reported coup attempt by year-end. Remote variables that could still shift outcomes include acute leadership health events or sudden, undetected realignments within remaining military or party networks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$155,383Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of People’s Liberation Army leadership, including the 2026 investigations of Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli for disciplinary violations, have removed dozens of senior officers and reinforced centralized party authority over the military. Credible reporting has found no confirmed coup attempts or organized challenges through mid-2026, with earlier social media rumors of plots or troop movements lacking verification from official or independent sources. This pattern of elite discipline ahead of the 2027 Party Congress underpins trader consensus on a low probability of any widely reported coup attempt by year-end. Remote variables that could still shift outcomes include acute leadership health events or sudden, undetected realignments within remaining military or party networks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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