Anthropic holds an overwhelming 78% implied probability for the top LiveBench Mathematics score by end of October 2026, driven by consistent leadership of its latest Claude models (including Fable 5 and Opus variants) across dynamic, contamination-resistant math evaluations. Recent results on related high-difficulty benchmarks such as USAMO 2026 show these systems achieving 96-97% accuracy through advanced reasoning chains, outpacing OpenAI’s o-series and GPT-5 variants in the specific LiveBench math category. Traders appear to discount near-term OpenAI or Google updates as insufficient to close the gap before the October snapshot, given Anthropic’s demonstrated edge in quantitative problem-solving and the benchmark’s emphasis on fresh olympiad-style questions. Lower probabilities for other labs reflect limited recent math-specific gains or slower iteration cycles.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAnthropic 78%
OpenAI 13%
Google 3.3%
Microsoft <1%
$24,116 ปริมาณ
$24,116 ปริมาณ
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
78%
OpenAI
13%
3%
Microsoft
1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Anthropic 78%
OpenAI 13%
Google 3.3%
Microsoft <1%
$24,116 ปริมาณ
$24,116 ปริมาณ
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$6,563 ปริมาณ
78%
OpenAI
$6,974 ปริมาณ
13%
$1,508 ปริมาณ
3%
Microsoft
$573 ปริมาณ
1%
Meta
$536 ปริมาณ
<1%
Alibaba
$515 ปริมาณ
<1%
SpaceXAI
$836 ปริมาณ
<1%
DeepSeek
$519 ปริมาณ
<1%
Amazon
$626 ปริมาณ
<1%
ByteDance
$494 ปริมาณ
<1%
Thinky
$602 ปริมาณ
<1%
MiniMax
$523 ปริมาณ
<1%
Mistral
$553 ปริมาณ
<1%
StepFun
$499 ปริมาณ
<1%
Moonshot
$286 ปริมาณ
<1%
Baidu
$390 ปริมาณ
<1%
Z.ai
$858 ปริมาณ
<1%
Xiaomi
$253 ปริมาณ
<1%
Nvidia
$386 ปริมาณ
<1%
Meituan
$283 ปริมาณ
<1%
Tencent
$339 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds an overwhelming 78% implied probability for the top LiveBench Mathematics score by end of October 2026, driven by consistent leadership of its latest Claude models (including Fable 5 and Opus variants) across dynamic, contamination-resistant math evaluations. Recent results on related high-difficulty benchmarks such as USAMO 2026 show these systems achieving 96-97% accuracy through advanced reasoning chains, outpacing OpenAI’s o-series and GPT-5 variants in the specific LiveBench math category. Traders appear to discount near-term OpenAI or Google updates as insufficient to close the gap before the October snapshot, given Anthropic’s demonstrated edge in quantitative problem-solving and the benchmark’s emphasis on fresh olympiad-style questions. Lower probabilities for other labs reflect limited recent math-specific gains or slower iteration cycles.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$24,116วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds an overwhelming 78% implied probability for the top LiveBench Mathematics score by end of October 2026, driven by consistent leadership of its latest Claude models (including Fable 5 and Opus variants) across dynamic, contamination-resistant math evaluations. Recent results on related high-difficulty benchmarks such as USAMO 2026 show these systems achieving 96-97% accuracy through advanced reasoning chains, outpacing OpenAI’s o-series and GPT-5 variants in the specific LiveBench math category. Traders appear to discount near-term OpenAI or Google updates as insufficient to close the gap before the October snapshot, given Anthropic’s demonstrated edge in quantitative problem-solving and the benchmark’s emphasis on fresh olympiad-style questions. Lower probabilities for other labs reflect limited recent math-specific gains or slower iteration cycles.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$24,116วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds an overwhelming 78% implied probability for the top LiveBench Mathematics score by end of October 2026, driven by consistent leadership of its latest Claude models (including Fable 5 and Opus variants) across dynamic, contamination-resistant math evaluations. Recent results on related high-difficulty benchmarks such as USAMO 2026 show these systems achieving 96-97% accuracy through advanced reasoning chains, outpacing OpenAI’s o-series and GPT-5 variants in the specific LiveBench math category. Traders appear to discount near-term OpenAI or Google updates as insufficient to close the gap before the October snapshot, given Anthropic’s demonstrated edge in quantitative problem-solving and the benchmark’s emphasis on fresh olympiad-style questions. Lower probabilities for other labs reflect limited recent math-specific gains or slower iteration cycles.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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