OpenAI holds a slim edge in the market at 55% implied probability due to its September 2026 announcements detailing measurable progress toward recursive self-improvement, or RSI, where AI systems autonomously advance their own capabilities. Chief scientist Jakub Pachocki’s essay highlighted the company reaching an “automated research intern” milestone, with agents logging over three workdays per human researcher and contributing to model training loops, alongside the GPT-6 Astra release showcasing advanced agentic coding and research tasks. Anthropic’s earlier June report documented Claude authoring over 80% of merged code and accelerating engineering output eightfold, yet lacked comparable recent internal benchmarks or new model launches. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI’s fresher demonstrations of closed research loops and explicit RSI focus more heavily, though both labs emphasize safety concerns and neither has claimed full autonomous self-improvement. Upcoming catalysts include further agent capability updates or safety framework revisions that could shift sentiment.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วOpenAI
55% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2027
OpenAI
55% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI holds a slim edge in the market at 55% implied probability due to its September 2026 announcements detailing measurable progress toward recursive self-improvement, or RSI, where AI systems autonomously advance their own capabilities. Chief scientist Jakub Pachocki’s essay highlighted the company reaching an “automated research intern” milestone, with agents logging over three workdays per human researcher and contributing to model training loops, alongside the GPT-6 Astra release showcasing advanced agentic coding and research tasks. Anthropic’s earlier June report documented Claude authoring over 80% of merged code and accelerating engineering output eightfold, yet lacked comparable recent internal benchmarks or new model launches. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI’s fresher demonstrations of closed research loops and explicit RSI focus more heavily, though both labs emphasize safety concerns and neither has claimed full autonomous self-improvement. Upcoming catalysts include further agent capability updates or safety framework revisions that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 18, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$461วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2028ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 18, 2026, 12:42 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI holds a slim edge in the market at 55% implied probability due to its September 2026 announcements detailing measurable progress toward recursive self-improvement, or RSI, where AI systems autonomously advance their own capabilities. Chief scientist Jakub Pachocki’s essay highlighted the company reaching an “automated research intern” milestone, with agents logging over three workdays per human researcher and contributing to model training loops, alongside the GPT-6 Astra release showcasing advanced agentic coding and research tasks. Anthropic’s earlier June report documented Claude authoring over 80% of merged code and accelerating engineering output eightfold, yet lacked comparable recent internal benchmarks or new model launches. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI’s fresher demonstrations of closed research loops and explicit RSI focus more heavily, though both labs emphasize safety concerns and neither has claimed full autonomous self-improvement. Upcoming catalysts include further agent capability updates or safety framework revisions that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$461วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2028ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 18, 2026, 12:42 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...OpenAI holds a slim edge in the market at 55% implied probability due to its September 2026 announcements detailing measurable progress toward recursive self-improvement, or RSI, where AI systems autonomously advance their own capabilities. Chief scientist Jakub Pachocki’s essay highlighted the company reaching an “automated research intern” milestone, with agents logging over three workdays per human researcher and contributing to model training loops, alongside the GPT-6 Astra release showcasing advanced agentic coding and research tasks. Anthropic’s earlier June report documented Claude authoring over 80% of merged code and accelerating engineering output eightfold, yet lacked comparable recent internal benchmarks or new model launches. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI’s fresher demonstrations of closed research loops and explicit RSI focus more heavily, though both labs emphasize safety concerns and neither has claimed full autonomous self-improvement. Upcoming catalysts include further agent capability updates or safety framework revisions that could shift sentiment.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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