September 2026 global temperatures are tracking well above the long-term average due to background anthropogenic warming and lingering El Niño-driven ocean heat content, yet seasonal cooling after August’s record 16.96 °C monthly mean has kept the month on pace for roughly 16.26 °C. This places it on track to rank as the second-warmest September in the ERA5 record, narrowly behind 2023, consistent with the market’s 97 % implied probability for that outcome. Official Copernicus and NOAA analyses confirm the year-to-date ranking and note that model ensembles show limited upside for exceeding the prior September benchmark. A late-month surge in tropical or land temperatures beyond current ensemble spreads could still shift the final ranking, though such revisions remain low-probability given the observed trajectory through mid-September.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 97.2%
4th or lower 2.7%
1st hottest 1.5%
3rd hottest <1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
2%
2nd hottest
97%
3rd hottest
1%
4th or lower
3%
2nd hottest 97.2%
4th or lower 2.7%
1st hottest 1.5%
3rd hottest <1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
$1,322 ปริมาณ
2%
2nd hottest
$1,072 ปริมาณ
97%
3rd hottest
$893 ปริมาณ
1%
4th or lower
$958 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.September 2026 global temperatures are tracking well above the long-term average due to background anthropogenic warming and lingering El Niño-driven ocean heat content, yet seasonal cooling after August’s record 16.96 °C monthly mean has kept the month on pace for roughly 16.26 °C. This places it on track to rank as the second-warmest September in the ERA5 record, narrowly behind 2023, consistent with the market’s 97 % implied probability for that outcome. Official Copernicus and NOAA analyses confirm the year-to-date ranking and note that model ensembles show limited upside for exceeding the prior September benchmark. A late-month surge in tropical or land temperatures beyond current ensemble spreads could still shift the final ranking, though such revisions remain low-probability given the observed trajectory through mid-September.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,246วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.September 2026 global temperatures are tracking well above the long-term average due to background anthropogenic warming and lingering El Niño-driven ocean heat content, yet seasonal cooling after August’s record 16.96 °C monthly mean has kept the month on pace for roughly 16.26 °C. This places it on track to rank as the second-warmest September in the ERA5 record, narrowly behind 2023, consistent with the market’s 97 % implied probability for that outcome. Official Copernicus and NOAA analyses confirm the year-to-date ranking and note that model ensembles show limited upside for exceeding the prior September benchmark. A late-month surge in tropical or land temperatures beyond current ensemble spreads could still shift the final ranking, though such revisions remain low-probability given the observed trajectory through mid-September.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,246วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...September 2026 global temperatures are tracking well above the long-term average due to background anthropogenic warming and lingering El Niño-driven ocean heat content, yet seasonal cooling after August’s record 16.96 °C monthly mean has kept the month on pace for roughly 16.26 °C. This places it on track to rank as the second-warmest September in the ERA5 record, narrowly behind 2023, consistent with the market’s 97 % implied probability for that outcome. Official Copernicus and NOAA analyses confirm the year-to-date ranking and note that model ensembles show limited upside for exceeding the prior September benchmark. A late-month surge in tropical or land temperatures beyond current ensemble spreads could still shift the final ranking, though such revisions remain low-probability given the observed trajectory through mid-September.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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