Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City this season, with 1,737 positive mosquito pools and 24 neuroinvasive disease cases reported so far versus 18 total cases in 2025, has pushed trader consensus toward the 35–49 and 50+ brackets at roughly equal implied probabilities. Official NYC Health data show transmission accelerating since the first human case in mid-August, consistent with higher-than-average mosquito positivity across all boroughs and a recent uptick from the 2022–2025 annual neuroinvasive average near 31. Remaining weeks of peak mosquito season introduce uncertainty, as additional confirmed cases or cooler weather could shift totals toward either leading outcome before year-end surveillance closes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
50 or more 43.0%
35 to 49 42%
20 to 34 8%
Fewer than 20 1.1%
$17,379 ปริมาณ
$17,379 ปริมาณ
Mar 31, 2027
Fewer than 20
1%
20 to 34
8%
35 to 49
42%
50 or more
43%
50 or more 43.0%
35 to 49 42%
20 to 34 8%
Fewer than 20 1.1%
$17,379 ปริมาณ
$17,379 ปริมาณ
Mar 31, 2027
Fewer than 20
$4,391 ปริมาณ
1%
20 to 34
$8,609 ปริมาณ
8%
35 to 49
$3,069 ปริมาณ
42%
50 or more
$1,311 ปริมาณ
43%
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City this season, with 1,737 positive mosquito pools and 24 neuroinvasive disease cases reported so far versus 18 total cases in 2025, has pushed trader consensus toward the 35–49 and 50+ brackets at roughly equal implied probabilities. Official NYC Health data show transmission accelerating since the first human case in mid-August, consistent with higher-than-average mosquito positivity across all boroughs and a recent uptick from the 2022–2025 annual neuroinvasive average near 31. Remaining weeks of peak mosquito season introduce uncertainty, as additional confirmed cases or cooler weather could shift totals toward either leading outcome before year-end surveillance closes.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$17,379วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.pageผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City this season, with 1,737 positive mosquito pools and 24 neuroinvasive disease cases reported so far versus 18 total cases in 2025, has pushed trader consensus toward the 35–49 and 50+ brackets at roughly equal implied probabilities. Official NYC Health data show transmission accelerating since the first human case in mid-August, consistent with higher-than-average mosquito positivity across all boroughs and a recent uptick from the 2022–2025 annual neuroinvasive average near 31. Remaining weeks of peak mosquito season introduce uncertainty, as additional confirmed cases or cooler weather could shift totals toward either leading outcome before year-end surveillance closes.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$17,379วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.pageผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City this season, with 1,737 positive mosquito pools and 24 neuroinvasive disease cases reported so far versus 18 total cases in 2025, has pushed trader consensus toward the 35–49 and 50+ brackets at roughly equal implied probabilities. Official NYC Health data show transmission accelerating since the first human case in mid-August, consistent with higher-than-average mosquito positivity across all boroughs and a recent uptick from the 2022–2025 annual neuroinvasive average near 31. Remaining weeks of peak mosquito season introduce uncertainty, as additional confirmed cases or cooler weather could shift totals toward either leading outcome before year-end surveillance closes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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