Provisional Met Office data released in early September 2026 show the UK summer mean temperature reached 16.5°C for June–August, exceeding the prior 2025 record of 16.1°C and marking the warmest season since records began in 1884. Persistent heatwaves produced multiple days above 35°C, new June and August maxima near 38°C, and widespread drought conditions, with human-induced climate change estimated to have made such extreme warmth roughly 130 times more likely. These verified observations from the national climate series underpin the market's 98.4% implied probability for a record outcome. While final data verification could introduce minor revisions, current thresholds and margins make reversal highly improbable.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
Will summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
98% โอกาส
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ใหม่
Sep 30, 2026
98% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Provisional Met Office data released in early September 2026 show the UK summer mean temperature reached 16.5°C for June–August, exceeding the prior 2025 record of 16.1°C and marking the warmest season since records began in 1884. Persistent heatwaves produced multiple days above 35°C, new June and August maxima near 38°C, and widespread drought conditions, with human-induced climate change estimated to have made such extreme warmth roughly 130 times more likely. These verified observations from the national climate series underpin the market's 98.4% implied probability for a record outcome. While final data verification could introduce minor revisions, current thresholds and margins make reversal highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,704วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txtผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Provisional Met Office data released in early September 2026 show the UK summer mean temperature reached 16.5°C for June–August, exceeding the prior 2025 record of 16.1°C and marking the warmest season since records began in 1884. Persistent heatwaves produced multiple days above 35°C, new June and August maxima near 38°C, and widespread drought conditions, with human-induced climate change estimated to have made such extreme warmth roughly 130 times more likely. These verified observations from the national climate series underpin the market's 98.4% implied probability for a record outcome. While final data verification could introduce minor revisions, current thresholds and margins make reversal highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,704วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txtผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Provisional Met Office data released in early September 2026 show the UK summer mean temperature reached 16.5°C for June–August, exceeding the prior 2025 record of 16.1°C and marking the warmest season since records began in 1884. Persistent heatwaves produced multiple days above 35°C, new June and August maxima near 38°C, and widespread drought conditions, with human-induced climate change estimated to have made such extreme warmth roughly 130 times more likely. These verified observations from the national climate series underpin the market's 98.4% implied probability for a record outcome. While final data verification could introduce minor revisions, current thresholds and margins make reversal highly improbable.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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