Advanced NEO monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and Sentry systems, along with ESA risk lists, has identified no objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy through the remainder of 2026. Recent predicted impacts, such as the sub-meter 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4 events, produced only localized fireballs well below threshold, while close approaches by larger near-Earth asteroids like 2026 NT2 remain safely distant. This track record of precise orbital tracking and the statistical rarity of such strikes underpin the 91.5% market-implied probability for “No.” An undetected small asteroid could still surprise observers, though refined catalogs and ongoing surveys make that scenario increasingly unlikely before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
9% โอกาส
$206,120 ปริมาณ
$206,120 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
9% โอกาส
$206,120 ปริมาณ
$206,120 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Advanced NEO monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and Sentry systems, along with ESA risk lists, has identified no objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy through the remainder of 2026. Recent predicted impacts, such as the sub-meter 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4 events, produced only localized fireballs well below threshold, while close approaches by larger near-Earth asteroids like 2026 NT2 remain safely distant. This track record of precise orbital tracking and the statistical rarity of such strikes underpin the 91.5% market-implied probability for “No.” An undetected small asteroid could still surprise observers, though refined catalogs and ongoing surveys make that scenario increasingly unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$206,120วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Advanced NEO monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and Sentry systems, along with ESA risk lists, has identified no objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy through the remainder of 2026. Recent predicted impacts, such as the sub-meter 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4 events, produced only localized fireballs well below threshold, while close approaches by larger near-Earth asteroids like 2026 NT2 remain safely distant. This track record of precise orbital tracking and the statistical rarity of such strikes underpin the 91.5% market-implied probability for “No.” An undetected small asteroid could still surprise observers, though refined catalogs and ongoing surveys make that scenario increasingly unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$206,120วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Advanced NEO monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and Sentry systems, along with ESA risk lists, has identified no objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy through the remainder of 2026. Recent predicted impacts, such as the sub-meter 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4 events, produced only localized fireballs well below threshold, while close approaches by larger near-Earth asteroids like 2026 NT2 remain safely distant. This track record of precise orbital tracking and the statistical rarity of such strikes underpin the 91.5% market-implied probability for “No.” An undetected small asteroid could still surprise observers, though refined catalogs and ongoing surveys make that scenario increasingly unlikely before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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