The September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%—following July's hold at 3.5-3.75%—has anchored trader consensus on the "Other" outcome at 99.7% for the July-October sequence. Persistent inflation above target, resilient economic activity, and geopolitical risks prompted the hawkish pivot, with updated projections now showing a median year-end 2026 rate near 4.1% and limited easing thereafter. This path deviates sharply from the low-probability pause or cut sequences, which together hold just 0.4%. An October hike or further tightening would reinforce the current pricing, while an unexpected cut would require a sharp deterioration in labor or inflation data to shift the aggregated market-implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Other 99.7%
Cut–Pause–Pause <1%
Cut–Pause–Cut <1%
Cut–Cut–Pause <1%
$813,762 ปริมาณ
$813,762 ปริมาณ
Oct 28, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
No
Cut–Pause–Cut
No
Cut–Cut–Pause
No
Cut–Cut–Cut
No
Pause–Pause–Pause
No
Pause–Pause–Cut
No
Pause–Cut–Pause
No
Pause–Cut–Cut
No
Other
Yes
Other 99.7%
Cut–Pause–Pause <1%
Cut–Pause–Cut <1%
Cut–Cut–Pause <1%
$813,762 ปริมาณ
$813,762 ปริมาณ
Oct 28, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$17,184 ปริมาณ
No
Cut–Pause–Cut
$9,609 ปริมาณ
No
Cut–Cut–Pause
$9,145 ปริมาณ
No
Cut–Cut–Cut
$7,550 ปริมาณ
No
Pause–Pause–Pause
$267,681 ปริมาณ
No
Pause–Pause–Cut
$70,882 ปริมาณ
No
Pause–Cut–Pause
$44,813 ปริมาณ
No
Pause–Cut–Cut
$29,550 ปริมาณ
No
Other
$357,348 ปริมาณ
Yes
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%—following July's hold at 3.5-3.75%—has anchored trader consensus on the "Other" outcome at 99.7% for the July-October sequence. Persistent inflation above target, resilient economic activity, and geopolitical risks prompted the hawkish pivot, with updated projections now showing a median year-end 2026 rate near 4.1% and limited easing thereafter. This path deviates sharply from the low-probability pause or cut sequences, which together hold just 0.4%. An October hike or further tightening would reinforce the current pricing, while an unexpected cut would require a sharp deterioration in labor or inflation data to shift the aggregated market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$813,762วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%—following July's hold at 3.5-3.75%—has anchored trader consensus on the "Other" outcome at 99.7% for the July-October sequence. Persistent inflation above target, resilient economic activity, and geopolitical risks prompted the hawkish pivot, with updated projections now showing a median year-end 2026 rate near 4.1% and limited easing thereafter. This path deviates sharply from the low-probability pause or cut sequences, which together hold just 0.4%. An October hike or further tightening would reinforce the current pricing, while an unexpected cut would require a sharp deterioration in labor or inflation data to shift the aggregated market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$813,762วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
The September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%—following July's hold at 3.5-3.75%—has anchored trader consensus on the "Other" outcome at 99.7% for the July-October sequence. Persistent inflation above target, resilient economic activity, and geopolitical risks prompted the hawkish pivot, with updated projections now showing a median year-end 2026 rate near 4.1% and limited easing thereafter. This path deviates sharply from the low-probability pause or cut sequences, which together hold just 0.4%. An October hike or further tightening would reinforce the current pricing, while an unexpected cut would require a sharp deterioration in labor or inflation data to shift the aggregated market-implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
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