Recent economic data releases and evolving inflation trajectories are shaping trader sentiment around the September-to-December 2026 FOMC meetings, with the Pause-Pause-Pause path at 29.5% reflecting broad expectations for steady policy amid mixed signals. Labor market resilience, measured by unemployment rates and nonfarm payrolls, alongside core PCE inflation trends, remains the key swing factor distinguishing hike sequences from extended pauses. Stronger-than-expected growth or persistent price pressures could shift probabilities toward Hike-Pause-Pause or Hike-Hike-Pause outcomes, while cooling indicators would reinforce the current pause consensus. Market-implied odds embed uncertainty ahead of upcoming data prints and the Fed's policy communications, with no single path exceeding 30% as participants price in a data-dependent stance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Pause–Pause–Pause 30%
Hike–Pause–Pause 15%
Hike–Hike–Pause 13%
Pause–Hike–Hike 10.8%
$15,084 ปริมาณ
$15,084 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
11%
Hike–Pause–Pause
15%
Hike–Hike–Hike
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
13%
Pause–Pause–Hike
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
30%
Pause–Hike–Hike
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
8%
Other
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause 30%
Hike–Pause–Pause 15%
Hike–Hike–Pause 13%
Pause–Hike–Hike 10.8%
$15,084 ปริมาณ
$15,084 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$329 ปริมาณ
11%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$569 ปริมาณ
15%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$231 ปริมาณ
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$474 ปริมาณ
13%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$623 ปริมาณ
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$11,754 ปริมาณ
30%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$364 ปริมาณ
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$446 ปริมาณ
8%
Other
$294 ปริมาณ
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic data releases and evolving inflation trajectories are shaping trader sentiment around the September-to-December 2026 FOMC meetings, with the Pause-Pause-Pause path at 29.5% reflecting broad expectations for steady policy amid mixed signals. Labor market resilience, measured by unemployment rates and nonfarm payrolls, alongside core PCE inflation trends, remains the key swing factor distinguishing hike sequences from extended pauses. Stronger-than-expected growth or persistent price pressures could shift probabilities toward Hike-Pause-Pause or Hike-Hike-Pause outcomes, while cooling indicators would reinforce the current pause consensus. Market-implied odds embed uncertainty ahead of upcoming data prints and the Fed's policy communications, with no single path exceeding 30% as participants price in a data-dependent stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,084วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent economic data releases and evolving inflation trajectories are shaping trader sentiment around the September-to-December 2026 FOMC meetings, with the Pause-Pause-Pause path at 29.5% reflecting broad expectations for steady policy amid mixed signals. Labor market resilience, measured by unemployment rates and nonfarm payrolls, alongside core PCE inflation trends, remains the key swing factor distinguishing hike sequences from extended pauses. Stronger-than-expected growth or persistent price pressures could shift probabilities toward Hike-Pause-Pause or Hike-Hike-Pause outcomes, while cooling indicators would reinforce the current pause consensus. Market-implied odds embed uncertainty ahead of upcoming data prints and the Fed's policy communications, with no single path exceeding 30% as participants price in a data-dependent stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,084วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent economic data releases and evolving inflation trajectories are shaping trader sentiment around the September-to-December 2026 FOMC meetings, with the Pause-Pause-Pause path at 29.5% reflecting broad expectations for steady policy amid mixed signals. Labor market resilience, measured by unemployment rates and nonfarm payrolls, alongside core PCE inflation trends, remains the key swing factor distinguishing hike sequences from extended pauses. Stronger-than-expected growth or persistent price pressures could shift probabilities toward Hike-Pause-Pause or Hike-Hike-Pause outcomes, while cooling indicators would reinforce the current pause consensus. Market-implied odds embed uncertainty ahead of upcoming data prints and the Fed's policy communications, with no single path exceeding 30% as participants price in a data-dependent stance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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