The September 2026 rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range, followed by the October 28 pause on a 10-2 vote amid elevated inflation, anchors trader expectations for a December hike at the FOMC meeting. Persistent price pressures, including the September CPI rise of 0.6% month-over-month to 3.7% year-over-year and core at 2.6%, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1-4.2%, have sustained hawkish sentiment despite two dissents favoring earlier tightening. Market-implied odds reflect the Fed’s data-dependent stance ahead of the November CPI release and December Summary of Economic Projections, with the path of one additional 25-basis-point move this year aligning with median dot-plot projections near 4.1%. Upcoming employment and inflation data through early December remain key swing factors for resolution.