Market-implied odds assign an 78% probability to "Other" for the June-through-September 2026 FOMC rate path, indicating trader consensus that at least one deviation from consecutive pauses is likely given incoming data. Pause-Pause-Pause sits at 19.5%, requiring inflation metrics and labor-market readings to remain aligned with the current policy stance through the period. Pause-Pause-Cut commands just 0.4%, reflecting minimal expectation of a lone September adjustment. Recent CPI and employment releases, alongside Treasury yield movements and forward-looking Fed communications, have anchored these probabilities, while the September meeting and any associated economic data releases remain the primary near-term catalysts that could alter the aggregated trader sentiment.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Other 78%
Pause–Pause–Pause 20%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$864,442 ปริมาณ
$864,442 ปริมาณ
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
20%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
78%
Other 78%
Pause–Pause–Pause 20%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$864,442 ปริมาณ
$864,442 ปริมาณ
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$332,706 ปริมาณ
20%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$102,212 ปริมาณ
<1%
Other
$373,647 ปริมาณ
78%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds assign an 78% probability to "Other" for the June-through-September 2026 FOMC rate path, indicating trader consensus that at least one deviation from consecutive pauses is likely given incoming data. Pause-Pause-Pause sits at 19.5%, requiring inflation metrics and labor-market readings to remain aligned with the current policy stance through the period. Pause-Pause-Cut commands just 0.4%, reflecting minimal expectation of a lone September adjustment. Recent CPI and employment releases, alongside Treasury yield movements and forward-looking Fed communications, have anchored these probabilities, while the September meeting and any associated economic data releases remain the primary near-term catalysts that could alter the aggregated trader sentiment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$864,442วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds assign an 78% probability to "Other" for the June-through-September 2026 FOMC rate path, indicating trader consensus that at least one deviation from consecutive pauses is likely given incoming data. Pause-Pause-Pause sits at 19.5%, requiring inflation metrics and labor-market readings to remain aligned with the current policy stance through the period. Pause-Pause-Cut commands just 0.4%, reflecting minimal expectation of a lone September adjustment. Recent CPI and employment releases, alongside Treasury yield movements and forward-looking Fed communications, have anchored these probabilities, while the September meeting and any associated economic data releases remain the primary near-term catalysts that could alter the aggregated trader sentiment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$864,442วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds assign an 78% probability to "Other" for the June-through-September 2026 FOMC rate path, indicating trader consensus that at least one deviation from consecutive pauses is likely given incoming data. Pause-Pause-Pause sits at 19.5%, requiring inflation metrics and labor-market readings to remain aligned with the current policy stance through the period. Pause-Pause-Cut commands just 0.4%, reflecting minimal expectation of a lone September adjustment. Recent CPI and employment releases, alongside Treasury yield movements and forward-looking Fed communications, have anchored these probabilities, while the September meeting and any associated economic data releases remain the primary near-term catalysts that could alter the aggregated trader sentiment.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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