The September 18 by-election in Samoa’s Falealili 1 constituency was triggered when the Court of Appeal upheld the conviction of former FAST MP and deputy prime minister Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo for election bribery, voiding his 2025 win. A fragmented candidate list—four from FAST including frontrunner Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale, two from HRPP led by Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko, plus several independents—has kept implied probabilities dispersed, with no contender above 26 percent. Recent nomination closures and the absence of consolidated polling or major endorsements have left trader consensus reflecting split party support and the constituency’s history of narrow margins. The four-day window before polling limits scope for late shifts, though any last-minute withdrawals or turnout signals in this rural Samoan seat could still alter the distribution among the viable options.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAuseugalelei Uiti Lagavale 23.0%
Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko 22%
Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu 13%
Si'a Fa'aletonu Alec Latu 3.0%
$20,815 ปริมาณ
$20,815 ปริมาณ
Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale
27%
Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko
22%
Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu
13%
Si'a Fa'aletonu Alec Latu
3%
Fuaolemoli Falaila Faausu Allen
9%
Patea Taveuveu Taamaletoa Aipovi Patea
1%
Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai
<1%
Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale 23.0%
Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko 22%
Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu 13%
Si'a Fa'aletonu Alec Latu 3.0%
$20,815 ปริมาณ
$20,815 ปริมาณ
Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale
27%
Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko
22%
Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu
13%
Si'a Fa'aletonu Alec Latu
3%
Fuaolemoli Falaila Faausu Allen
9%
Patea Taveuveu Taamaletoa Aipovi Patea
1%
Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Falealili 1 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 31, 2026, 3:59 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Falealili 1 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The September 18 by-election in Samoa’s Falealili 1 constituency was triggered when the Court of Appeal upheld the conviction of former FAST MP and deputy prime minister Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo for election bribery, voiding his 2025 win. A fragmented candidate list—four from FAST including frontrunner Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale, two from HRPP led by Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko, plus several independents—has kept implied probabilities dispersed, with no contender above 26 percent. Recent nomination closures and the absence of consolidated polling or major endorsements have left trader consensus reflecting split party support and the constituency’s history of narrow margins. The four-day window before polling limits scope for late shifts, though any last-minute withdrawals or turnout signals in this rural Samoan seat could still alter the distribution among the viable options.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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