The Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience through the 2025–2026 protests and the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli military campaign that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei and no widespread military defections. Security forces maintained control amid lethal crackdowns, while external pressure contributed to nationalist consolidation around IRGC-linked leadership rather than fragmentation. As of early September 2026, ongoing low-level exchanges and economic strain have not produced coordinated elite defections or mass defections capable of triggering collapse within the remaining resolution window. Trader consensus at 99.1% on “No” reflects this track record of short-term survival, though a sudden escalation in domestic unrest or decisive external intervention before September 30 remains a low-probability variable that could still shift conditions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПадет ли иранский режим к 30 сентября?
Падет ли иранский режим к 30 сентября?
Да
<1% вероятность
$2,058,207 Объем
$2,058,207 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
Да
<1% вероятность
$2,058,207 Объем
$2,058,207 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience through the 2025–2026 protests and the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli military campaign that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei and no widespread military defections. Security forces maintained control amid lethal crackdowns, while external pressure contributed to nationalist consolidation around IRGC-linked leadership rather than fragmentation. As of early September 2026, ongoing low-level exchanges and economic strain have not produced coordinated elite defections or mass defections capable of triggering collapse within the remaining resolution window. Trader consensus at 99.1% on “No” reflects this track record of short-term survival, though a sudden escalation in domestic unrest or decisive external intervention before September 30 remains a low-probability variable that could still shift conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Объем
$2,058,207Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience through the 2025–2026 protests and the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli military campaign that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei and no widespread military defections. Security forces maintained control amid lethal crackdowns, while external pressure contributed to nationalist consolidation around IRGC-linked leadership rather than fragmentation. As of early September 2026, ongoing low-level exchanges and economic strain have not produced coordinated elite defections or mass defections capable of triggering collapse within the remaining resolution window. Trader consensus at 99.1% on “No” reflects this track record of short-term survival, though a sudden escalation in domestic unrest or decisive external intervention before September 30 remains a low-probability variable that could still shift conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,058,488Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience through the 2025–2026 protests and the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli military campaign that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei and no widespread military defections. Security forces maintained control amid lethal crackdowns, while external pressure contributed to nationalist consolidation around IRGC-linked leadership rather than fragmentation. As of early September 2026, ongoing low-level exchanges and economic strain have not produced coordinated elite defections or mass defections capable of triggering collapse within the remaining resolution window. Trader consensus at 99.1% on “No” reflects this track record of short-term survival, though a sudden escalation in domestic unrest or decisive external intervention before September 30 remains a low-probability variable that could still shift conditions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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