Traders assign a 96.2% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026 because Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through expanded coast guard patrols, research vessel activity, and naval presence around the island without crossing into full-scale amphibious preparations in the limited time remaining. Recent months featured record Chinese vessel sightings near Taiwan, joint drills with third parties, and a revised national defense mobilization law, alongside Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises, record defense budget proposals, drone procurement, and live-fire training focused on asymmetric defense. These patterns align with long-standing coercion rather than imminent invasion. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts, such as outcomes from the planned U.S. presidential visit to Beijing, or sudden miscalculation during maritime encounters could still alter the trajectory before year-end.