The 98% trader consensus against U.S. control of the Panama Canal before 2027 stems from sustained Panamanian sovereignty under the 1977 Torrijos-Carter Neutrality Treaty, which transferred full operational authority to the Panama Canal Authority in 1999. Despite repeated Trump administration statements emphasizing reduced PRC influence and expanded U.S.-Panama security cooperation through 2025-2026 base access memorandums and joint exercises, developments have centered on Panama's January 2026 Supreme Court annulment of Hong Kong-linked port concessions and rebidding to European operators, preserving ACP management rather than enabling U.S. operational takeover. No military action or sovereignty transfer has materialized amid ongoing diplomatic engagement and Panamanian assertions of neutrality. Late shifts could arise from acute U.S.-China escalation or an unforeseen bilateral agreement within the remaining months, though current trajectories indicate continued Panamanian administration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
2% вероятность
$172,927 Объем
$172,927 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
2% вероятность
$172,927 Объем
$172,927 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.The 98% trader consensus against U.S. control of the Panama Canal before 2027 stems from sustained Panamanian sovereignty under the 1977 Torrijos-Carter Neutrality Treaty, which transferred full operational authority to the Panama Canal Authority in 1999. Despite repeated Trump administration statements emphasizing reduced PRC influence and expanded U.S.-Panama security cooperation through 2025-2026 base access memorandums and joint exercises, developments have centered on Panama's January 2026 Supreme Court annulment of Hong Kong-linked port concessions and rebidding to European operators, preserving ACP management rather than enabling U.S. operational takeover. No military action or sovereignty transfer has materialized amid ongoing diplomatic engagement and Panamanian assertions of neutrality. Late shifts could arise from acute U.S.-China escalation or an unforeseen bilateral agreement within the remaining months, though current trajectories indicate continued Panamanian administration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 4:44 PM ET
Объем
$172,927Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 4:44 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.The 98% trader consensus against U.S. control of the Panama Canal before 2027 stems from sustained Panamanian sovereignty under the 1977 Torrijos-Carter Neutrality Treaty, which transferred full operational authority to the Panama Canal Authority in 1999. Despite repeated Trump administration statements emphasizing reduced PRC influence and expanded U.S.-Panama security cooperation through 2025-2026 base access memorandums and joint exercises, developments have centered on Panama's January 2026 Supreme Court annulment of Hong Kong-linked port concessions and rebidding to European operators, preserving ACP management rather than enabling U.S. operational takeover. No military action or sovereignty transfer has materialized amid ongoing diplomatic engagement and Panamanian assertions of neutrality. Late shifts could arise from acute U.S.-China escalation or an unforeseen bilateral agreement within the remaining months, though current trajectories indicate continued Panamanian administration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
Объем
$172,927Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 4:44 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The 98% trader consensus against U.S. control of the Panama Canal before 2027 stems from sustained Panamanian sovereignty under the 1977 Torrijos-Carter Neutrality Treaty, which transferred full operational authority to the Panama Canal Authority in 1999. Despite repeated Trump administration statements emphasizing reduced PRC influence and expanded U.S.-Panama security cooperation through 2025-2026 base access memorandums and joint exercises, developments have centered on Panama's January 2026 Supreme Court annulment of Hong Kong-linked port concessions and rebidding to European operators, preserving ACP management rather than enabling U.S. operational takeover. No military action or sovereignty transfer has materialized amid ongoing diplomatic engagement and Panamanian assertions of neutrality. Late shifts could arise from acute U.S.-China escalation or an unforeseen bilateral agreement within the remaining months, though current trajectories indicate continued Panamanian administration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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