Iran’s damaged nuclear infrastructure from 2025–2026 U.S. and Israeli strikes remains the dominant factor behind the 97.4% trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027. Declared enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan stay non-operational, with IAEA assessments through late October 2026 confirming no verified repairs or reconstruction despite satellite monitoring. Iran’s roughly 440 kg stockpile of highly enriched uranium lacks current safeguards access, while activity at sites such as Minzadayi signals possible reconstitution efforts rather than immediate weaponization or testing readiness. Recent public debate over revising the longstanding nuclear doctrine has not produced an official policy shift or accelerated breakout timeline. A test by year-end would require rapid covert progress on weaponization, explosive testing infrastructure, and delivery systems amid ongoing diplomatic and verification pressures.