The extremely short window remaining until the September 30, 2026 resolution date underpins the 99.6 percent trader consensus against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. No large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop movements, or logistical preparations consistent with an imminent full-scale assault have been observed in recent months. Beijing has instead sustained gray-zone pressure through routine coast guard patrols, air and naval incursions, and blockade rehearsals while addressing internal military command disruptions from prior purges. Taiwan continues defense enhancements and exercises drawing on lessons from other conflicts, supported by U.S. arms and regional diplomacy. An invasion in the next three weeks remains highly improbable absent sudden, verifiable escalation signals that have not materialized.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
<1% вероятность
$2,102,582 Объем
$2,102,582 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
Да
<1% вероятность
$2,102,582 Объем
$2,102,582 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The extremely short window remaining until the September 30, 2026 resolution date underpins the 99.6 percent trader consensus against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. No large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop movements, or logistical preparations consistent with an imminent full-scale assault have been observed in recent months. Beijing has instead sustained gray-zone pressure through routine coast guard patrols, air and naval incursions, and blockade rehearsals while addressing internal military command disruptions from prior purges. Taiwan continues defense enhancements and exercises drawing on lessons from other conflicts, supported by U.S. arms and regional diplomacy. An invasion in the next three weeks remains highly improbable absent sudden, verifiable escalation signals that have not materialized.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Объем
$2,102,582Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The extremely short window remaining until the September 30, 2026 resolution date underpins the 99.6 percent trader consensus against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. No large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop movements, or logistical preparations consistent with an imminent full-scale assault have been observed in recent months. Beijing has instead sustained gray-zone pressure through routine coast guard patrols, air and naval incursions, and blockade rehearsals while addressing internal military command disruptions from prior purges. Taiwan continues defense enhancements and exercises drawing on lessons from other conflicts, supported by U.S. arms and regional diplomacy. An invasion in the next three weeks remains highly improbable absent sudden, verifiable escalation signals that have not materialized.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$2,102,582Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The extremely short window remaining until the September 30, 2026 resolution date underpins the 99.6 percent trader consensus against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. No large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop movements, or logistical preparations consistent with an imminent full-scale assault have been observed in recent months. Beijing has instead sustained gray-zone pressure through routine coast guard patrols, air and naval incursions, and blockade rehearsals while addressing internal military command disruptions from prior purges. Taiwan continues defense enhancements and exercises drawing on lessons from other conflicts, supported by U.S. arms and regional diplomacy. An invasion in the next three weeks remains highly improbable absent sudden, verifiable escalation signals that have not materialized.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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