Incumbent Democrat Becca Balint holds a strong position in Vermont’s at-large House district ahead of the November 3 general election, with recent University of New Hampshire polling showing her leading Republican Gerald Malloy by roughly 38 points among likely voters. All major forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s unbroken Democratic control since 1990 and Balint’s prior double-digit victories. The August primaries produced lopsided results, with Balint securing 98 percent in her contest and Malloy prevailing on the Republican side. Multiple independent candidates on the ballot add minor fragmentation but are unlikely to alter the two-party margin materially. Trader pricing across margin brackets reflects this established Democratic advantage while leaving room for shifts from turnout patterns, late-cycle advertising, or unexpected national political developments in the final weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМаржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей VT-AL
Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей VT-AL
Democrat 40-45% 32%
Democrat 45-50% 19%
Democrat 30-35% 16%
Democrat 50-55% 12.4%
$10,795 Объем
$10,795 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Democrat 55%+
1%
Democrat 50-55%
12%
Democrat 45-50%
19%
Democrat 40-45%
32%
Democrat 35-40%
6%
Democrat 30-35%
16%
Democrat 25-30%
1%
Democrat 15-25%
<1%
Democrat 0-15%
1%
Republican Wins
1%
Democrat 40-45% 32%
Democrat 45-50% 19%
Democrat 30-35% 16%
Democrat 50-55% 12.4%
$10,795 Объем
$10,795 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Democrat 55%+
$652 Объем
1%
Democrat 50-55%
$516 Объем
12%
Democrat 45-50%
$1,196 Объем
19%
Democrat 40-45%
$2,355 Объем
32%
Democrat 35-40%
$2,097 Объем
6%
Democrat 30-35%
$1,960 Объем
16%
Democrat 25-30%
$624 Объем
1%
Democrat 15-25%
$494 Объем
<1%
Democrat 0-15%
$404 Объем
1%
Republican Wins
$496 Объем
1%
The 2026 VT-AL House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VT-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Becca Balint holds a strong position in Vermont’s at-large House district ahead of the November 3 general election, with recent University of New Hampshire polling showing her leading Republican Gerald Malloy by roughly 38 points among likely voters. All major forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s unbroken Democratic control since 1990 and Balint’s prior double-digit victories. The August primaries produced lopsided results, with Balint securing 98 percent in her contest and Malloy prevailing on the Republican side. Multiple independent candidates on the ballot add minor fragmentation but are unlikely to alter the two-party margin materially. Trader pricing across margin brackets reflects this established Democratic advantage while leaving room for shifts from turnout patterns, late-cycle advertising, or unexpected national political developments in the final weeks.
The 2026 VT-AL House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VT-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VT-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 11, 2026, 3:04 PM ET
Объем
$10,795Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 3:04 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 VT-AL House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VT-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Becca Balint holds a strong position in Vermont’s at-large House district ahead of the November 3 general election, with recent University of New Hampshire polling showing her leading Republican Gerald Malloy by roughly 38 points among likely voters. All major forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s unbroken Democratic control since 1990 and Balint’s prior double-digit victories. The August primaries produced lopsided results, with Balint securing 98 percent in her contest and Malloy prevailing on the Republican side. Multiple independent candidates on the ballot add minor fragmentation but are unlikely to alter the two-party margin materially. Trader pricing across margin brackets reflects this established Democratic advantage while leaving room for shifts from turnout patterns, late-cycle advertising, or unexpected national political developments in the final weeks.
The 2026 VT-AL House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VT-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VT-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$10,795Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 3:04 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Becca Balint holds a strong position in Vermont’s at-large House district ahead of the November 3 general election, with recent University of New Hampshire polling showing her leading Republican Gerald Malloy by roughly 38 points among likely voters. All major forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s unbroken Democratic control since 1990 and Balint’s prior double-digit victories. The August primaries produced lopsided results, with Balint securing 98 percent in her contest and Malloy prevailing on the Republican side. Multiple independent candidates on the ballot add minor fragmentation but are unlikely to alter the two-party margin materially. Trader pricing across margin brackets reflects this established Democratic advantage while leaving room for shifts from turnout patterns, late-cycle advertising, or unexpected national political developments in the final weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
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