OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release on September 3 has prompted executives including president Greg Brockman to describe it as potentially marking the AGI era, with comments like “I do think we’re there” and “Welcome to the AGI era,” alongside strong benchmark results in areas like FrontierMath and ARC-AGI. However, the company has avoided an official announcement aligning with its charter definition of AGI as a highly autonomous system outperforming humans on most economically valuable work. CEO Sam Altman has targeted an internal AGI-qualifying system by December 2026 and placed the firm roughly 80 percent of the way there, but traders see the 76.5 percent implied probability for no public declaration before 2027 as reflecting cautious timelines, fuzzy thresholds, and OpenAI’s preference for internal milestones over declarative statements. Key catalysts ahead include any year-end internal system claims or further model releases.