**Traders see a fragmented contest for second place in Paraná’s two-seat Senate race, with Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) holding the highest implied probability at 34.5% amid technical ties among several contenders.** Recent August–early September 2026 polls from institutes including Real Time Big Data, Quaest, IRG, and Paraná Pesquisas consistently show Álvaro Dias (MDB) leading for first, while Curi, Filipe Barros (PL), Deltan Dallagnol (Novo), Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), and Cristina Graeml (PSD) cluster closely for the remaining position, often within margins of error and separated by single digits in consolidated first-and-second-preference scenarios. High undecided and blank/null shares (frequently 30–50%) keep outcomes fluid. Dallagnol’s ongoing eligibility challenges add uncertainty, while vote fragmentation on the right and regional strongholds for Gleisi and Curi sustain the tight positioning. Upcoming polling releases or candidate alliances before the October election could shift probabilities by clarifying second-preference flows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоАлександр Кури 35%
Филипе Баррос 22%
Дельтан Далланьол 19%
Глейси 10.4%
$32,117 Объем
$32,117 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Александр Кури
35%
Филипе Баррос
22%
Дельтан Далланьол
19%
Глейси
10%
Кристина Рейс Граемл
4%
Марсело Марселино
<1%
Доктор Розинья
<1%
Жоаким до MLB
<1%
Карен Геррейро
<1%
Александр Кури 35%
Филипе Баррос 22%
Дельтан Далланьол 19%
Глейси 10.4%
$32,117 Объем
$32,117 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Александр Кури
$4,971 Объем
35%
Филипе Баррос
$10,942 Объем
22%
Дельтан Далланьол
$7,329 Объем
19%
Глейси
$4,901 Объем
10%
Кристина Рейс Граемл
$1,523 Объем
4%
Марсело Марселино
$605 Объем
<1%
Доктор Розинья
$574 Объем
<1%
Жоаким до MLB
$712 Объем
<1%
Карен Геррейро
$560 Объем
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Traders see a fragmented contest for second place in Paraná’s two-seat Senate race, with Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) holding the highest implied probability at 34.5% amid technical ties among several contenders.** Recent August–early September 2026 polls from institutes including Real Time Big Data, Quaest, IRG, and Paraná Pesquisas consistently show Álvaro Dias (MDB) leading for first, while Curi, Filipe Barros (PL), Deltan Dallagnol (Novo), Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), and Cristina Graeml (PSD) cluster closely for the remaining position, often within margins of error and separated by single digits in consolidated first-and-second-preference scenarios. High undecided and blank/null shares (frequently 30–50%) keep outcomes fluid. Dallagnol’s ongoing eligibility challenges add uncertainty, while vote fragmentation on the right and regional strongholds for Gleisi and Curi sustain the tight positioning. Upcoming polling releases or candidate alliances before the October election could shift probabilities by clarifying second-preference flows.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Открытие рынка: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Объем
$32,117Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Traders see a fragmented contest for second place in Paraná’s two-seat Senate race, with Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) holding the highest implied probability at 34.5% amid technical ties among several contenders.** Recent August–early September 2026 polls from institutes including Real Time Big Data, Quaest, IRG, and Paraná Pesquisas consistently show Álvaro Dias (MDB) leading for first, while Curi, Filipe Barros (PL), Deltan Dallagnol (Novo), Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), and Cristina Graeml (PSD) cluster closely for the remaining position, often within margins of error and separated by single digits in consolidated first-and-second-preference scenarios. High undecided and blank/null shares (frequently 30–50%) keep outcomes fluid. Dallagnol’s ongoing eligibility challenges add uncertainty, while vote fragmentation on the right and regional strongholds for Gleisi and Curi sustain the tight positioning. Upcoming polling releases or candidate alliances before the October election could shift probabilities by clarifying second-preference flows.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Объем
$32,117Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Traders see a fragmented contest for second place in Paraná’s two-seat Senate race, with Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) holding the highest implied probability at 34.5% amid technical ties among several contenders.** Recent August–early September 2026 polls from institutes including Real Time Big Data, Quaest, IRG, and Paraná Pesquisas consistently show Álvaro Dias (MDB) leading for first, while Curi, Filipe Barros (PL), Deltan Dallagnol (Novo), Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), and Cristina Graeml (PSD) cluster closely for the remaining position, often within margins of error and separated by single digits in consolidated first-and-second-preference scenarios. High undecided and blank/null shares (frequently 30–50%) keep outcomes fluid. Dallagnol’s ongoing eligibility challenges add uncertainty, while vote fragmentation on the right and regional strongholds for Gleisi and Curi sustain the tight positioning. Upcoming polling releases or candidate alliances before the October election could shift probabilities by clarifying second-preference flows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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