**Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 81% implied probability for first place in the Pará Senate race, reflecting his consistent lead in recent polling as the top vote-getter.** A September 3–7 Real Time Big Data survey of 1,600 voters showed him at 36% in consolidated first- and second-preference votes, ahead of Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 17% and a group including Celso Sabino (PDT), Chicão (União Brasil), and incumbent Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) at 12% each. Helder’s advantage stems from his high name recognition as term-limited outgoing governor, broad coalition backing, and strong first-preference support (45% in the same poll). The October 4 election renews two Senate seats, with voters selecting two candidates; lower-polling names such as Mauro trail significantly in trader pricing, consistent with their single-digit to mid-teen shares in surveys. No major late shifts have altered this positioning.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоХелдер 80%
Делегаду Эдер Мауро 10.4%
Зекинья Маринью 7.0%
Эдлейн Родригес 3.8%
$17,237 Объем
$17,237 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Хелдер
80%
Делегаду Эдер Мауро
10%
Зекинья Маринью
6%
Эдлейн Родригес
4%
Брену Гимарайнс
1%
Фернанда Лопес
1%
Селсо Сабино
1%
Конти
<1%
Чикао
<1%
Жизель Фрейтас
<1%
Виллем да Сильва
<1%
Хелдер 80%
Делегаду Эдер Мауро 10.4%
Зекинья Маринью 7.0%
Эдлейн Родригес 3.8%
$17,237 Объем
$17,237 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Хелдер
$11,644 Объем
80%
Делегаду Эдер Мауро
$635 Объем
10%
Зекинья Маринью
$569 Объем
6%
Эдлейн Родригес
$600 Объем
4%
Брену Гимарайнс
$529 Объем
1%
Фернанда Лопес
$726 Объем
1%
Селсо Сабино
$499 Объем
1%
Конти
$551 Объем
<1%
Чикао
$488 Объем
<1%
Жизель Фрейтас
$562 Объем
<1%
Виллем да Сильва
$436 Объем
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 81% implied probability for first place in the Pará Senate race, reflecting his consistent lead in recent polling as the top vote-getter.**
A September 3–7 Real Time Big Data survey of 1,600 voters showed him at 36% in consolidated first- and second-preference votes, ahead of Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 17% and a group including Celso Sabino (PDT), Chicão (União Brasil), and incumbent Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) at 12% each. Helder’s advantage stems from his high name recognition as term-limited outgoing governor, broad coalition backing, and strong first-preference support (45% in the same poll). The October 4 election renews two Senate seats, with voters selecting two candidates; lower-polling names such as Mauro trail significantly in trader pricing, consistent with their single-digit to mid-teen shares in surveys. No major late shifts have altered this positioning.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Открытие рынка: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Объем
$17,237Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 81% implied probability for first place in the Pará Senate race, reflecting his consistent lead in recent polling as the top vote-getter.**
A September 3–7 Real Time Big Data survey of 1,600 voters showed him at 36% in consolidated first- and second-preference votes, ahead of Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 17% and a group including Celso Sabino (PDT), Chicão (União Brasil), and incumbent Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) at 12% each. Helder’s advantage stems from his high name recognition as term-limited outgoing governor, broad coalition backing, and strong first-preference support (45% in the same poll). The October 4 election renews two Senate seats, with voters selecting two candidates; lower-polling names such as Mauro trail significantly in trader pricing, consistent with their single-digit to mid-teen shares in surveys. No major late shifts have altered this positioning.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Объем
$17,237Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 81% implied probability for first place in the Pará Senate race, reflecting his consistent lead in recent polling as the top vote-getter.** A September 3–7 Real Time Big Data survey of 1,600 voters showed him at 36% in consolidated first- and second-preference votes, ahead of Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 17% and a group including Celso Sabino (PDT), Chicão (União Brasil), and incumbent Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) at 12% each. Helder’s advantage stems from his high name recognition as term-limited outgoing governor, broad coalition backing, and strong first-preference support (45% in the same poll). The October 4 election renews two Senate seats, with voters selecting two candidates; lower-polling names such as Mauro trail significantly in trader pricing, consistent with their single-digit to mid-teen shares in surveys. No major late shifts have altered this positioning.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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