Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat with a Partisan Voter Index of R+23, where incumbent Frank Lucas secured the GOP nomination in the June 2026 primary by a wide margin over challenger Wade Burleson. Democrat Suzie Byrd advanced from her party's primary to face Lucas in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race as Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting the district's consistent conservative voting patterns in recent cycles and Lucas's long tenure since 1994. With no major polling shifts, scandals, or national wave indicators emerging in the past month, trader consensus on victory margins clusters around 40-50 points, as historical results and structural factors limit Democratic competitiveness absent unusual turnout or late developments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОК-03 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
ОК-03 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
Republican 45-50% 39.3%
Republican 40-45% 29%
Republican 35-40% 21%
Republican 20-25% 9.4%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Republican 50%+
6%
Republican 45-50%
39%
Republican 40-45%
29%
Republican 35-40%
21%
Republican 30-35%
5%
Republican 25-30%
4%
Republican 20-25%
8%
Republican 10-20%
3%
Republican 0-10%
4%
Democrat Wins
1%
Republican 45-50% 39.3%
Republican 40-45% 29%
Republican 35-40% 21%
Republican 20-25% 9.4%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Republican 50%+
$296 Объем
6%
Republican 45-50%
$719 Объем
39%
Republican 40-45%
$1,562 Объем
29%
Republican 35-40%
$412 Объем
21%
Republican 30-35%
$700 Объем
5%
Republican 25-30%
$512 Объем
4%
Republican 20-25%
$350 Объем
8%
Republican 10-20%
$368 Объем
3%
Republican 0-10%
$399 Объем
4%
Democrat Wins
$441 Объем
1%
The 2026 OK-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 OK-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat with a Partisan Voter Index of R+23, where incumbent Frank Lucas secured the GOP nomination in the June 2026 primary by a wide margin over challenger Wade Burleson. Democrat Suzie Byrd advanced from her party's primary to face Lucas in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race as Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting the district's consistent conservative voting patterns in recent cycles and Lucas's long tenure since 1994. With no major polling shifts, scandals, or national wave indicators emerging in the past month, trader consensus on victory margins clusters around 40-50 points, as historical results and structural factors limit Democratic competitiveness absent unusual turnout or late developments.
The 2026 OK-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 OK-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 OK-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 11, 2026, 2:42 PM ET
Объем
$5,758Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 2:42 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 OK-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 OK-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat with a Partisan Voter Index of R+23, where incumbent Frank Lucas secured the GOP nomination in the June 2026 primary by a wide margin over challenger Wade Burleson. Democrat Suzie Byrd advanced from her party's primary to face Lucas in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race as Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting the district's consistent conservative voting patterns in recent cycles and Lucas's long tenure since 1994. With no major polling shifts, scandals, or national wave indicators emerging in the past month, trader consensus on victory margins clusters around 40-50 points, as historical results and structural factors limit Democratic competitiveness absent unusual turnout or late developments.
The 2026 OK-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 OK-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 OK-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$5,758Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 2:42 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat with a Partisan Voter Index of R+23, where incumbent Frank Lucas secured the GOP nomination in the June 2026 primary by a wide margin over challenger Wade Burleson. Democrat Suzie Byrd advanced from her party's primary to face Lucas in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race as Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting the district's consistent conservative voting patterns in recent cycles and Lucas's long tenure since 1994. With no major polling shifts, scandals, or national wave indicators emerging in the past month, trader consensus on victory margins clusters around 40-50 points, as historical results and structural factors limit Democratic competitiveness absent unusual turnout or late developments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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