Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross faces Republican Damon Galdo in New Jersey’s 1st congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district’s South Jersey suburbs, including Camden and Cherry Hill, have delivered consistent Democratic majorities, with Norcross securing 57.8% in 2024. Both candidates ran unopposed in the June 2 primaries, leaving limited campaign activity or new polling since then and anchoring trader expectations around historical margins. The spread across Democrat victory buckets (peaking at 25-35% and tapering lower) and the low probability on a Republican win reflect the “wisdom of crowds” pricing a comfortable but not overwhelming Democratic edge. Absent major catalysts—such as national midterm swings, district-specific economic data, turnout shifts, or late developments—the margin remains uncertain within the 15-40% range typical for this seat. A surprise scandal, health issue, or significant national polling move could widen or narrow the outcome before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNJ-01 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
NJ-01 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
Democrat 25-30% 21%
Democrat 30-35% 19%
Democrat 15-20% 16%
Democrat 35-40% 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Democrat 45%+
13%
Democrat 40-45%
8%
Democrat 35-40%
15%
Democrat 30-35%
19%
Democrat 25-30%
21%
Democrat 20-25%
10%
Democrat 15-20%
16%
Democrat 5-15%
6%
Democrat 0-5%
8%
Republican Wins
1%
Democrat 25-30% 21%
Democrat 30-35% 19%
Democrat 15-20% 16%
Democrat 35-40% 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Democrat 45%+
$383 Объем
13%
Democrat 40-45%
$659 Объем
8%
Democrat 35-40%
$947 Объем
15%
Democrat 30-35%
$1,500 Объем
19%
Democrat 25-30%
$811 Объем
21%
Democrat 20-25%
$634 Объем
10%
Democrat 15-20%
$578 Объем
16%
Democrat 5-15%
$428 Объем
6%
Democrat 0-5%
$458 Объем
8%
Republican Wins
$259 Объем
1%
The 2026 NJ-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross faces Republican Damon Galdo in New Jersey’s 1st congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district’s South Jersey suburbs, including Camden and Cherry Hill, have delivered consistent Democratic majorities, with Norcross securing 57.8% in 2024. Both candidates ran unopposed in the June 2 primaries, leaving limited campaign activity or new polling since then and anchoring trader expectations around historical margins. The spread across Democrat victory buckets (peaking at 25-35% and tapering lower) and the low probability on a Republican win reflect the “wisdom of crowds” pricing a comfortable but not overwhelming Democratic edge. Absent major catalysts—such as national midterm swings, district-specific economic data, turnout shifts, or late developments—the margin remains uncertain within the 15-40% range typical for this seat. A surprise scandal, health issue, or significant national polling move could widen or narrow the outcome before Election Day.
The 2026 NJ-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 11, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
Объем
$6,657Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 2:16 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 NJ-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross faces Republican Damon Galdo in New Jersey’s 1st congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district’s South Jersey suburbs, including Camden and Cherry Hill, have delivered consistent Democratic majorities, with Norcross securing 57.8% in 2024. Both candidates ran unopposed in the June 2 primaries, leaving limited campaign activity or new polling since then and anchoring trader expectations around historical margins. The spread across Democrat victory buckets (peaking at 25-35% and tapering lower) and the low probability on a Republican win reflect the “wisdom of crowds” pricing a comfortable but not overwhelming Democratic edge. Absent major catalysts—such as national midterm swings, district-specific economic data, turnout shifts, or late developments—the margin remains uncertain within the 15-40% range typical for this seat. A surprise scandal, health issue, or significant national polling move could widen or narrow the outcome before Election Day.
The 2026 NJ-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$6,657Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 2:16 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross faces Republican Damon Galdo in New Jersey’s 1st congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district’s South Jersey suburbs, including Camden and Cherry Hill, have delivered consistent Democratic majorities, with Norcross securing 57.8% in 2024. Both candidates ran unopposed in the June 2 primaries, leaving limited campaign activity or new polling since then and anchoring trader expectations around historical margins. The spread across Democrat victory buckets (peaking at 25-35% and tapering lower) and the low probability on a Republican win reflect the “wisdom of crowds” pricing a comfortable but not overwhelming Democratic edge. Absent major catalysts—such as national midterm swings, district-specific economic data, turnout shifts, or late developments—the margin remains uncertain within the 15-40% range typical for this seat. A surprise scandal, health issue, or significant national polling move could widen or narrow the outcome before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
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Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу NJ-06 в 2026 году с разницей в 25%-30%?
39%
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Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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