Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey holds a commanding position in the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race after decisively winning his September 1 primary against Rep. Seth Moulton by roughly 30 points. The state's consistent Democratic tilt, reflected in recent presidential margins and a partisan voting index exceeding D+14, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 97% implied probability. Polling averages show Markey ahead of Republican nominee John Deaton by 20 points or more, consistent with historical patterns for Democratic Senate candidates in the commonwealth. Deaton's unopposed primary win provides limited momentum against these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national Republican surge would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Сенат штата Массачусетс
Победитель выборов в Сенат штата Массачусетс
$48,024 Объем
$48,024 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Эд Марки (Д)
97%
Джон Дитон (Р)
3%
$48,024 Объем
$48,024 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Эд Марки (Д)
$35,054 Объем
97%
Джон Дитон (Р)
$12,970 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey holds a commanding position in the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race after decisively winning his September 1 primary against Rep. Seth Moulton by roughly 30 points. The state's consistent Democratic tilt, reflected in recent presidential margins and a partisan voting index exceeding D+14, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 97% implied probability. Polling averages show Markey ahead of Republican nominee John Deaton by 20 points or more, consistent with historical patterns for Democratic Senate candidates in the commonwealth. Deaton's unopposed primary win provides limited momentum against these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national Republican surge would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
Объем
$48,024Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey holds a commanding position in the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race after decisively winning his September 1 primary against Rep. Seth Moulton by roughly 30 points. The state's consistent Democratic tilt, reflected in recent presidential margins and a partisan voting index exceeding D+14, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 97% implied probability. Polling averages show Markey ahead of Republican nominee John Deaton by 20 points or more, consistent with historical patterns for Democratic Senate candidates in the commonwealth. Deaton's unopposed primary win provides limited momentum against these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national Republican surge would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$48,024Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey holds a commanding position in the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race after decisively winning his September 1 primary against Rep. Seth Moulton by roughly 30 points. The state's consistent Democratic tilt, reflected in recent presidential margins and a partisan voting index exceeding D+14, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 97% implied probability. Polling averages show Markey ahead of Republican nominee John Deaton by 20 points or more, consistent with historical patterns for Democratic Senate candidates in the commonwealth. Deaton's unopposed primary win provides limited momentum against these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national Republican surge would be required to meaningfully shift the outcome before November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы