Trader consensus favoring "No" at 75% reflects the historical rarity of any federal or statewide race producing a certified margin of victory at or below 0.01%, even amid competitive 2026 midterms. Recent polling aggregates show Democrats leading the generic ballot by roughly 5-6 points, with multiple Senate toss-ups in Maine, Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and North Carolina, plus dozens of House districts rated as uncertain. These contests feature narrow polling leads and shifting voter sentiment tied to the Trump administration's record, yet typical final margins in contested races exceed 0.1% after full tabulation, audits, and certification by state authorities. The law of large numbers in high-turnout elections, combined with structural factors like absentee and early voting, makes an outcome this precise statistically improbable absent unprecedented vote parity. No late-breaking developments have signaled conditions that would compress margins to this degree before November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудут ли какие-либо федеральные или промежуточные выборы в США в пределах 0,01%?
Будут ли какие-либо федеральные или промежуточные выборы в США в пределах 0,01%?
16% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
16% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market. Trader consensus favoring "No" at 75% reflects the historical rarity of any federal or statewide race producing a certified margin of victory at or below 0.01%, even amid competitive 2026 midterms. Recent polling aggregates show Democrats leading the generic ballot by roughly 5-6 points, with multiple Senate toss-ups in Maine, Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and North Carolina, plus dozens of House districts rated as uncertain. These contests feature narrow polling leads and shifting voter sentiment tied to the Trump administration's record, yet typical final margins in contested races exceed 0.1% after full tabulation, audits, and certification by state authorities. The law of large numbers in high-turnout elections, combined with structural factors like absentee and early voting, makes an outcome this precise statistically improbable absent unprecedented vote parity. No late-breaking developments have signaled conditions that would compress margins to this degree before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market.
Открытие рынка: Sep 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Объем
$10Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market. Trader consensus favoring "No" at 75% reflects the historical rarity of any federal or statewide race producing a certified margin of victory at or below 0.01%, even amid competitive 2026 midterms. Recent polling aggregates show Democrats leading the generic ballot by roughly 5-6 points, with multiple Senate toss-ups in Maine, Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and North Carolina, plus dozens of House districts rated as uncertain. These contests feature narrow polling leads and shifting voter sentiment tied to the Trump administration's record, yet typical final margins in contested races exceed 0.1% after full tabulation, audits, and certification by state authorities. The law of large numbers in high-turnout elections, combined with structural factors like absentee and early voting, makes an outcome this precise statistically improbable absent unprecedented vote parity. No late-breaking developments have signaled conditions that would compress margins to this degree before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market.
Объем
$10Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring "No" at 75% reflects the historical rarity of any federal or statewide race producing a certified margin of victory at or below 0.01%, even amid competitive 2026 midterms. Recent polling aggregates show Democrats leading the generic ballot by roughly 5-6 points, with multiple Senate toss-ups in Maine, Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and North Carolina, plus dozens of House districts rated as uncertain. These contests feature narrow polling leads and shifting voter sentiment tied to the Trump administration's record, yet typical final margins in contested races exceed 0.1% after full tabulation, audits, and certification by state authorities. The law of large numbers in high-turnout elections, combined with structural factors like absentee and early voting, makes an outcome this precise statistically improbable absent unprecedented vote parity. No late-breaking developments have signaled conditions that would compress margins to this degree before November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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