Recent polling for the October 27 Israeli legislative election consistently projects Ra'am at 4–6 seats, placing its implied vote share near the 4–4.75% range that traders currently favor at 41.5%. This positioning reflects Ra'am’s independent run alongside a technical bloc with former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz, its separation from the Southern Islamic Movement, and competition with the reconstituted Joint List for Arab votes. Recent petitions seeking to disqualify Ra'am and other Arab lists have prompted formal defenses before the Central Elections Committee, adding procedural uncertainty without yet altering survey results. A surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List and ongoing Arab voter mobilization efforts remain the main variables that could shift the final percentage within the narrow bands priced by the market.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено4–4,75% 40%
4,75-5,5% 19%
3,25–4% 18%
<3,25% 14%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 нояб. 2026 г.
<3,25%
14%
3,25–4%
26%
4–4,75%
42%
4,75-5,5%
20%
5,5%+
13%
4–4,75% 40%
4,75-5,5% 19%
3,25–4% 18%
<3,25% 14%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 нояб. 2026 г.
<3,25%
$344 Объем
14%
3,25–4%
$293 Объем
26%
4–4,75%
$1,152 Объем
42%
4,75-5,5%
$207 Объем
20%
5,5%+
$191 Объем
13%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for the October 27 Israeli legislative election consistently projects Ra'am at 4–6 seats, placing its implied vote share near the 4–4.75% range that traders currently favor at 41.5%. This positioning reflects Ra'am’s independent run alongside a technical bloc with former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz, its separation from the Southern Islamic Movement, and competition with the reconstituted Joint List for Arab votes. Recent petitions seeking to disqualify Ra'am and other Arab lists have prompted formal defenses before the Central Elections Committee, adding procedural uncertainty without yet altering survey results. A surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List and ongoing Arab voter mobilization efforts remain the main variables that could shift the final percentage within the narrow bands priced by the market.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Открытие рынка: Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ET
Объем
$2,188Дата окончания
27 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for the October 27 Israeli legislative election consistently projects Ra'am at 4–6 seats, placing its implied vote share near the 4–4.75% range that traders currently favor at 41.5%. This positioning reflects Ra'am’s independent run alongside a technical bloc with former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz, its separation from the Southern Islamic Movement, and competition with the reconstituted Joint List for Arab votes. Recent petitions seeking to disqualify Ra'am and other Arab lists have prompted formal defenses before the Central Elections Committee, adding procedural uncertainty without yet altering survey results. A surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List and ongoing Arab voter mobilization efforts remain the main variables that could shift the final percentage within the narrow bands priced by the market.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Объем
$2,188Дата окончания
27 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the October 27 Israeli legislative election consistently projects Ra'am at 4–6 seats, placing its implied vote share near the 4–4.75% range that traders currently favor at 41.5%. This positioning reflects Ra'am’s independent run alongside a technical bloc with former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz, its separation from the Southern Islamic Movement, and competition with the reconstituted Joint List for Arab votes. Recent petitions seeking to disqualify Ra'am and other Arab lists have prompted formal defenses before the Central Elections Committee, adding procedural uncertainty without yet altering survey results. A surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List and ongoing Arab voter mobilization efforts remain the main variables that could shift the final percentage within the narrow bands priced by the market.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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