The wide-open field in Guinea-Bissau’s December 6 presidential election reflects the aftermath of the November 2025 military coup that annulled disputed results, installed a transitional junta under Horta Inta-A Na Man, and set new electoral rules. Fernando Dias da Costa leads trader pricing after his strong showing in the prior contest, followed by ousted incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló and several former officeholders. A late-August constitutional referendum, approved by roughly 70% of voters despite opposition boycotts, expanded presidential authority over cabinet appointments and parliament while imposing residency requirements that shape eligibility. Fragmented party support, reduced legislative seats, and the shift to a stronger executive create uncertainty over which contender can consolidate backing from major factions ahead of the vote.