Recent July core PCE data held steady at 3.3% year-over-year, matching June and aligning with consensus, amid broader inflation pressures from elevated energy costs tied to Middle East supply disruptions. This stickiness above the Federal Reserve's 2% target has shaped trader expectations for the August reading, with market-implied odds favoring outcomes clustered around 3.1% to 3.3% as the most probable. Monthly core gains of 0.2% in July and resilient consumer spending have reinforced views of contained but persistent underlying price pressures, while the upcoming September 30 release—coinciding with the BEA's annual National Accounts update—introduces potential revisions. Fed communications and labor market stability continue to anchor probabilities near these levels ahead of the data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено3,2% 36%
3,3% 25%
3,1% 18%
3,4% 12%
$14,853 Объем
$14,853 Объем
≤3,0%
8%
3,1%
18%
3,2%
36%
3,3%
25%
3,4%
12%
3,5%
6%
3,6%+
4%
3,2% 36%
3,3% 25%
3,1% 18%
3,4% 12%
$14,853 Объем
$14,853 Объем
≤3,0%
8%
3,1%
18%
3,2%
36%
3,3%
25%
3,4%
12%
3,5%
6%
3,6%+
4%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Открытие рынка: Aug 27, 2026, 3:47 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent July core PCE data held steady at 3.3% year-over-year, matching June and aligning with consensus, amid broader inflation pressures from elevated energy costs tied to Middle East supply disruptions. This stickiness above the Federal Reserve's 2% target has shaped trader expectations for the August reading, with market-implied odds favoring outcomes clustered around 3.1% to 3.3% as the most probable. Monthly core gains of 0.2% in July and resilient consumer spending have reinforced views of contained but persistent underlying price pressures, while the upcoming September 30 release—coinciding with the BEA's annual National Accounts update—introduces potential revisions. Fed communications and labor market stability continue to anchor probabilities near these levels ahead of the data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено

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