Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 drives the overwhelming 95% market-implied odds, as the large language model quickly established frontier performance on key benchmarks including Terminal-Bench-Science at 52.6% and Terminal-Bench 4.0 coding tasks. Traders cite its gains in long-running agentic work, reasoning accuracy, and cost efficiency over the prior Fable 5 generation, with no comparable model launch from OpenAI, Google, or others in the preceding two weeks. The model’s availability across major cloud platforms and early third-party evaluations reinforce consensus that it remains the top performer heading into September 14. A credible new release or benchmark reversal from a rival lab could still shift sentiment before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЛучшая модель ИИ 14 сентября?
Лучшая модель ИИ 14 сентября?
claude-fable-5.1-max 96%
Другая 3.6%
claude-opus-5-max <1%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
$35,025 Объем
$35,025 Объем
14 сент. 2026 г.
claude-fable-5.1-max
96%
Другая
4%
claude-opus-5-max
1%
claude-opus-5-high
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
<1%
claude-fable-5.1-max 96%
Другая 3.6%
claude-opus-5-max <1%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
$35,025 Объем
$35,025 Объем
14 сент. 2026 г.
claude-fable-5.1-max
$13,241 Объем
96%
Другая
$14,329 Объем
4%
claude-opus-5-max
$2,656 Объем
1%
claude-opus-5-high
$4,140 Объем
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$659 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 drives the overwhelming 95% market-implied odds, as the large language model quickly established frontier performance on key benchmarks including Terminal-Bench-Science at 52.6% and Terminal-Bench 4.0 coding tasks. Traders cite its gains in long-running agentic work, reasoning accuracy, and cost efficiency over the prior Fable 5 generation, with no comparable model launch from OpenAI, Google, or others in the preceding two weeks. The model’s availability across major cloud platforms and early third-party evaluations reinforce consensus that it remains the top performer heading into September 14. A credible new release or benchmark reversal from a rival lab could still shift sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Открытие рынка: Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
Объем
$35,025Дата окончания
14 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 drives the overwhelming 95% market-implied odds, as the large language model quickly established frontier performance on key benchmarks including Terminal-Bench-Science at 52.6% and Terminal-Bench 4.0 coding tasks. Traders cite its gains in long-running agentic work, reasoning accuracy, and cost efficiency over the prior Fable 5 generation, with no comparable model launch from OpenAI, Google, or others in the preceding two weeks. The model’s availability across major cloud platforms and early third-party evaluations reinforce consensus that it remains the top performer heading into September 14. A credible new release or benchmark reversal from a rival lab could still shift sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Объем
$35,025Дата окончания
14 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 drives the overwhelming 95% market-implied odds, as the large language model quickly established frontier performance on key benchmarks including Terminal-Bench-Science at 52.6% and Terminal-Bench 4.0 coding tasks. Traders cite its gains in long-running agentic work, reasoning accuracy, and cost efficiency over the prior Fable 5 generation, with no comparable model launch from OpenAI, Google, or others in the preceding two weeks. The model’s availability across major cloud platforms and early third-party evaluations reinforce consensus that it remains the top performer heading into September 14. A credible new release or benchmark reversal from a rival lab could still shift sentiment before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы