Strong bilateral security cooperation and Mexico’s firm defense of sovereignty underpin the 97.8% trader consensus that the United States will not invade Mexico in 2026. Recent joint anti-drone operations along the Tijuana-San Diego corridor, ongoing intelligence sharing, and U.S. troop deployments focused on border enforcement rather than offensive action reflect coordinated efforts against cartels instead of unilateral military occupation. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly rejected any U.S. ground presence, while trade negotiations under USMCA and mutual economic interests further discourage escalation. Limited U.S. strikes or pressure remain possible but fall short of the market’s definition of invasion. Unforeseen cartel attacks on U.S. personnel, a sudden policy shift, or major diplomatic rupture could still alter the outlook before year-end.