Iranian lawmakers' recent September 2026 calls for formal NPT withdrawal under Article X, citing attacks on nuclear sites and IAEA inspection disputes, have not translated into government action or a supreme national interest declaration required for exit. President Masoud Pezeshkian and senior officials continue to affirm Iran's NPT commitment while suspending most IAEA verification since mid-2025 following U.S. and Israeli strikes, allowing de facto reduced safeguards without crossing into formal withdrawal. The process demands parliamentary approval, Supreme National Security Council review, and three months' notice to the UN Security Council and treaty parties, creating significant procedural and diplomatic hurdles with limited time remaining before 2027. Trader consensus at 86.6% for no withdrawal reflects these barriers alongside Iran's pattern of leveraging treaty tensions for leverage rather than immediate exit.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?
O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?
Sim
14% chance
$564,696 Vol.
$564,696 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
14% chance
$564,696 Vol.
$564,696 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian lawmakers' recent September 2026 calls for formal NPT withdrawal under Article X, citing attacks on nuclear sites and IAEA inspection disputes, have not translated into government action or a supreme national interest declaration required for exit. President Masoud Pezeshkian and senior officials continue to affirm Iran's NPT commitment while suspending most IAEA verification since mid-2025 following U.S. and Israeli strikes, allowing de facto reduced safeguards without crossing into formal withdrawal. The process demands parliamentary approval, Supreme National Security Council review, and three months' notice to the UN Security Council and treaty parties, creating significant procedural and diplomatic hurdles with limited time remaining before 2027. Trader consensus at 86.6% for no withdrawal reflects these barriers alongside Iran's pattern of leveraging treaty tensions for leverage rather than immediate exit.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$564,696Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian lawmakers' recent September 2026 calls for formal NPT withdrawal under Article X, citing attacks on nuclear sites and IAEA inspection disputes, have not translated into government action or a supreme national interest declaration required for exit. President Masoud Pezeshkian and senior officials continue to affirm Iran's NPT commitment while suspending most IAEA verification since mid-2025 following U.S. and Israeli strikes, allowing de facto reduced safeguards without crossing into formal withdrawal. The process demands parliamentary approval, Supreme National Security Council review, and three months' notice to the UN Security Council and treaty parties, creating significant procedural and diplomatic hurdles with limited time remaining before 2027. Trader consensus at 86.6% for no withdrawal reflects these barriers alongside Iran's pattern of leveraging treaty tensions for leverage rather than immediate exit.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$564,696Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian lawmakers' recent September 2026 calls for formal NPT withdrawal under Article X, citing attacks on nuclear sites and IAEA inspection disputes, have not translated into government action or a supreme national interest declaration required for exit. President Masoud Pezeshkian and senior officials continue to affirm Iran's NPT commitment while suspending most IAEA verification since mid-2025 following U.S. and Israeli strikes, allowing de facto reduced safeguards without crossing into formal withdrawal. The process demands parliamentary approval, Supreme National Security Council review, and three months' notice to the UN Security Council and treaty parties, creating significant procedural and diplomatic hurdles with limited time remaining before 2027. Trader consensus at 86.6% for no withdrawal reflects these barriers alongside Iran's pattern of leveraging treaty tensions for leverage rather than immediate exit.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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