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icon for Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano
Eleições·Médio Oriente

Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano

icon for Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano
Eleições·Médio Oriente

Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano

Movimento Amal (Amal) 1.0%

Forças Libanesas (FL) 1.0%

Hezbollah (Hezb) <1%

Movimento Patriótico Livre (FPM) <1%

Polymarket

$676,855 Vol.

Movimento Amal (Amal) 1.0%

Forças Libanesas (FL) 1.0%

Hezbollah (Hezb) <1%

Movimento Patriótico Livre (FPM) <1%

Polymarket

$676,855 Vol.

Movimento Amal (Amal)

$63,920 Vol.

1%

Forças Libanesas (FL)

$168,618 Vol.

1%

Hezbollah (Hezb)

$56,367 Vol.

1%

Movimento Patriótico Livre (FPM)

$80,518 Vol.

<1%

Partido Taqaddom

$11,776 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Partido Social-Democrata (Lana)

$13,761 Vol.

<1%

Aliança Watani (Watani)

$7,539 Vol.

<1%

Partido Kataeb (Kataeb)

$7,370 Vol.

<1%

Movimento Marada (MM)

$8,688 Vol.

<1%

Grupo Islâmico (GI)

$8,631 Vol.

<1%

Partido Socialista Árabe Ba'ath no Líbano (Ba'ath)

$10,710 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$14,166 Vol.

<1%

Partido do Diálogo Nacional (PDN)

$47,398 Vol.

<1%

Partido Socialista Progressista (PSP)

$55,015 Vol.

<1%

Movimento de Independência (IM)

$8,894 Vol.

<1%

Associação de Projetos de Caridade Islâmica (ICPA)

$9,181 Vol.

<1%

Partido Nacional Liberal (PNL)

$9,599 Vol.

<1%

Partido Mada (Mada)

$28,113 Vol.

<1%

Movimento Dignidade (MD)

$29,195 Vol.

<1%

ReLebanon

$9,819 Vol.

<1%

Federação Revolucionária Armênia (ARF)

$10,552 Vol.

<1%

Partido da União (UP)

$7,760 Vol.

<1%

Organização Nasserista Popular (PNO)

$9,264 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary election landscape remains highly fragmented, with no party positioned to secure a clear majority amid sectarian power-sharing rules and coalition dynamics. Recent developments, including the 2025 election of President Joseph Aoun and formation of a Salam-led cabinet, have coincided with Hezbollah's diminished military and financial leverage after 2024-2025 clashes with Israel and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Parliament's extension of its mandate has delayed the vote originally slated for May 2026, adding uncertainty. Amal Movement and Lebanese Forces hold slightly higher implied probabilities than peers due to established Shia and Christian bases, yet traders price all outcomes low because success hinges on unpredictable alliances, turnout among undecided voters, and potential electoral reforms. Ongoing disarmament talks and regional tensions further cloud consolidation behind any single contender.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$676,855
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary election landscape remains highly fragmented, with no party positioned to secure a clear majority amid sectarian power-sharing rules and coalition dynamics. Recent developments, including the 2025 election of President Joseph Aoun and formation of a Salam-led cabinet, have coincided with Hezbollah's diminished military and financial leverage after 2024-2025 clashes with Israel and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Parliament's extension of its mandate has delayed the vote originally slated for May 2026, adding uncertainty. Amal Movement and Lebanese Forces hold slightly higher implied probabilities than peers due to established Shia and Christian bases, yet traders price all outcomes low because success hinges on unpredictable alliances, turnout among undecided voters, and potential electoral reforms. Ongoing disarmament talks and regional tensions further cloud consolidation behind any single contender.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$676,855
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Movimento Amal (Amal)" at 1%, followed by "Forças Libanesas (FL)" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 1¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 1% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano" has generated $676.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano" is "Movimento Amal (Amal)" at just 1%, with "Forças Libanesas (FL)" close behind at 1%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.