The election on September 18–20 features a mixed system of 225 proportional seats (5% threshold) and 225 single-member districts, where United Russia holds structural advantages in candidate selection, media access, and administration. Recent polls from state-linked firms such as VTsIOM and FOM place the party at roughly 35–45% support, down from its 2021 result amid war-related economic pressures, internet disruptions, and voter fatigue, prompting Kremlin strategists to adjust internal targets lower while still prioritizing a comfortable majority. Single-member district wins are expected to offset weaker list performance, sustaining totals near current levels of around 310 seats. The close clustering of market probabilities across the 310–354 range reflects uncertainty over final turnout, the scale of any administrative measures, and minor opposition gains by parties such as New People or LDPR, with limited scope for outcomes outside this band absent major last-minute shifts.