NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and global bolide monitoring show no cataloged objects on trajectories capable of delivering 100-kiloton or greater airburst energy in 2026. Historical CNEOS data record only two such events since comprehensive satellite coverage began in the late 1980s, yielding an empirical annual rate near 5 percent or lower. Objects roughly 10–20 meters across that produce these yields remain statistically infrequent and largely untracked until atmospheric entry, yet no recent survey detections or Sentry risk-list updates indicate an imminent threat. Market-implied odds of roughly 4 percent for a qualifying strike therefore reflect both the low background frequency and the absence of any identified precursor. An undetected fragment on a direct collision course or a revised orbit solution for a marginal object could still alter the outcome before year-end.