Skip to main content

Para negociar nos EUA, acesse polymarket.us

icon for Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?
Economia·Taxas Fed

Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?

icon for Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?
Economia·Taxas Fed

Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?

$25,209 Vol.

30 dez 2026
Polymarket

$25,209 Vol.

Polymarket

5,25%

$4,040 Vol.

20%

5,10%

$6,817 Vol.

56%

5,00%

$5,352 Vol.

61%

4,95%

$1,186 Vol.

72%

4,90%

$1,892 Vol.

87%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The Federal Reserve’s September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00 percent, coupled with updated projections showing a 4.1 percent median endpoint for both 2026 and 2027, has anchored trader expectations for a higher-for-longer policy path. Persistent inflation, with PCE running at 3.7 percent for 2026, and resilient growth have lifted the 5-year Treasury yield to roughly 4.83–4.86 percent in recent sessions. Market-implied odds for the peak level before 2027 price in continued pressure from elevated real rates and limited near-term easing, while upcoming CPI releases, employment data, and the next FOMC meetings remain key swing factors that could shift the curve.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$25,209
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Resultado proposto: Sim

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Sim

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The Federal Reserve’s September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00 percent, coupled with updated projections showing a 4.1 percent median endpoint for both 2026 and 2027, has anchored trader expectations for a higher-for-longer policy path. Persistent inflation, with PCE running at 3.7 percent for 2026, and resilient growth have lifted the 5-year Treasury yield to roughly 4.83–4.86 percent in recent sessions. Market-implied odds for the peak level before 2027 price in continued pressure from elevated real rates and limited near-term easing, while upcoming CPI releases, employment data, and the next FOMC meetings remain key swing factors that could shift the curve.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$25,209
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Resultado proposto: Sim

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Sim

Relacionado

icon for O rendimento do Treasury de 5 anos irá cair abaixo de 4,50% antes de 2027?

O rendimento do Treasury de 5 anos irá cair abaixo de 4,50% antes de 2027?

68%
Sim
icon for A taxa de rendimento do Tesouro de 5 anos atingirá 4,90% em setembro?

A taxa de rendimento do Tesouro de 5 anos atingirá 4,90% em setembro?

57%
Sim
icon for O rendimento do Tesouro de 5 anos cairá abaixo de 4,49% em setembro?

O rendimento do Tesouro de 5 anos cairá abaixo de 4,49% em setembro?

28%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4,85%" at 100%, followed by "4,80%" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?" has generated $25.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?" is "4,85%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4,80%" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quão alto será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.