Ashley Moody, the Republican incumbent appointed in 2025 to finish Marco Rubio’s term, holds a commanding position in Florida’s November 3 special Senate election due to the state’s consistent Republican lean, her decisive primary victory, and broad party backing. Fundraising totals exceeding $11 million, endorsements from Donald Trump and state GOP figures, and polling averages showing a roughly 10-point lead reinforce trader expectations. Angie Nixon’s Democratic primary upset over Alex Vindman introduced a progressive nominee, yet her profile faces structural headwinds in a state Trump carried by double digits in 2024. While Moody’s edge aligns with historical patterns for Republican incumbents in Florida, late-breaking developments such as scandals, health events, or sharp national shifts could still narrow the gap before Election Day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$111,823 Vol.
$111,823 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
93%
Angie Nixon (D)
8%
$111,823 Vol.
$111,823 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
$56,363 Vol.
93%
Angie Nixon (D)
$55,461 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody, the Republican incumbent appointed in 2025 to finish Marco Rubio’s term, holds a commanding position in Florida’s November 3 special Senate election due to the state’s consistent Republican lean, her decisive primary victory, and broad party backing. Fundraising totals exceeding $11 million, endorsements from Donald Trump and state GOP figures, and polling averages showing a roughly 10-point lead reinforce trader expectations. Angie Nixon’s Democratic primary upset over Alex Vindman introduced a progressive nominee, yet her profile faces structural headwinds in a state Trump carried by double digits in 2024. While Moody’s edge aligns with historical patterns for Republican incumbents in Florida, late-breaking developments such as scandals, health events, or sharp national shifts could still narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$111,823Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody, the Republican incumbent appointed in 2025 to finish Marco Rubio’s term, holds a commanding position in Florida’s November 3 special Senate election due to the state’s consistent Republican lean, her decisive primary victory, and broad party backing. Fundraising totals exceeding $11 million, endorsements from Donald Trump and state GOP figures, and polling averages showing a roughly 10-point lead reinforce trader expectations. Angie Nixon’s Democratic primary upset over Alex Vindman introduced a progressive nominee, yet her profile faces structural headwinds in a state Trump carried by double digits in 2024. While Moody’s edge aligns with historical patterns for Republican incumbents in Florida, late-breaking developments such as scandals, health events, or sharp national shifts could still narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$111,823Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ashley Moody, the Republican incumbent appointed in 2025 to finish Marco Rubio’s term, holds a commanding position in Florida’s November 3 special Senate election due to the state’s consistent Republican lean, her decisive primary victory, and broad party backing. Fundraising totals exceeding $11 million, endorsements from Donald Trump and state GOP figures, and polling averages showing a roughly 10-point lead reinforce trader expectations. Angie Nixon’s Democratic primary upset over Alex Vindman introduced a progressive nominee, yet her profile faces structural headwinds in a state Trump carried by double digits in 2024. While Moody’s edge aligns with historical patterns for Republican incumbents in Florida, late-breaking developments such as scandals, health events, or sharp national shifts could still narrow the gap before Election Day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions