Erdoğan’s firm hold on Turkey’s executive presidency through his current term ending in 2028 underpins the 94.5% implied probability that he will not leave office by December 31, 2026. The AKP-MHP alliance maintains parliamentary control, opposition figures face legal and institutional constraints, and no early election or constitutional mechanism for removal appears imminent. Recent public appearances, policy announcements on exports, housing, and regional security, plus statements affirming continued service assuming adequate health, signal sustained capacity to govern. While earlier 2026 reports noted age-related health concerns and internal succession discussions, these have not translated into verifiable disruptions or power shifts within the short resolution window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoErdoğan até 31 de dezembro de 2026?
Erdoğan até 31 de dezembro de 2026?
Sim
6% chance
$635,169 Vol.
$635,169 Vol.
30 dez 2026
Ganhe 3.25%
Sim
6% chance
$635,169 Vol.
$635,169 Vol.
30 dez 2026
Ganhe 3.25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Erdoğan’s firm hold on Turkey’s executive presidency through his current term ending in 2028 underpins the 94.5% implied probability that he will not leave office by December 31, 2026. The AKP-MHP alliance maintains parliamentary control, opposition figures face legal and institutional constraints, and no early election or constitutional mechanism for removal appears imminent. Recent public appearances, policy announcements on exports, housing, and regional security, plus statements affirming continued service assuming adequate health, signal sustained capacity to govern. While earlier 2026 reports noted age-related health concerns and internal succession discussions, these have not translated into verifiable disruptions or power shifts within the short resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Volume
$635,169Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Erdoğan’s firm hold on Turkey’s executive presidency through his current term ending in 2028 underpins the 94.5% implied probability that he will not leave office by December 31, 2026. The AKP-MHP alliance maintains parliamentary control, opposition figures face legal and institutional constraints, and no early election or constitutional mechanism for removal appears imminent. Recent public appearances, policy announcements on exports, housing, and regional security, plus statements affirming continued service assuming adequate health, signal sustained capacity to govern. While earlier 2026 reports noted age-related health concerns and internal succession discussions, these have not translated into verifiable disruptions or power shifts within the short resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$635,169Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Erdoğan’s firm hold on Turkey’s executive presidency through his current term ending in 2028 underpins the 94.5% implied probability that he will not leave office by December 31, 2026. The AKP-MHP alliance maintains parliamentary control, opposition figures face legal and institutional constraints, and no early election or constitutional mechanism for removal appears imminent. Recent public appearances, policy announcements on exports, housing, and regional security, plus statements affirming continued service assuming adequate health, signal sustained capacity to govern. While earlier 2026 reports noted age-related health concerns and internal succession discussions, these have not translated into verifiable disruptions or power shifts within the short resolution window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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