Lula holds a 70% implied probability in this Amazonas first-round market, reflecting trader consensus on his structural edge from Workers’ Party organization and consistent interior support across recent state polls. Flavio Bolsonaro sits at 28% as the primary challenger from the PL, though Amazonas-specific surveys from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and AtlasIntel in August and September show the two candidates within or near the margin of error in first-round scenarios, with Lula often ahead on interior votes offsetting capital dynamics. A fragmented field of lower-polling names such as Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema has produced no sustained momentum to alter the ordering. With voting set for October 4, the pricing captures the narrow but persistent regional advantage for the incumbent amid otherwise competitive national conditions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoLula 71%
Flavio Bolsonaro 28%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$26,857 Vol.
$26,857 Vol.
4 out 2026
Lula
71%
Flavio Bolsonaro
28%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 71%
Flavio Bolsonaro 28%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$26,857 Vol.
$26,857 Vol.
4 out 2026
Lula
$8,525 Vol.
71%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$9,740 Vol.
28%
Ronaldo Caiado
$751 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$861 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$729 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$571 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$747 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$836 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$1,149 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$855 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$542 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$908 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$641 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a 70% implied probability in this Amazonas first-round market, reflecting trader consensus on his structural edge from Workers’ Party organization and consistent interior support across recent state polls. Flavio Bolsonaro sits at 28% as the primary challenger from the PL, though Amazonas-specific surveys from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and AtlasIntel in August and September show the two candidates within or near the margin of error in first-round scenarios, with Lula often ahead on interior votes offsetting capital dynamics. A fragmented field of lower-polling names such as Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema has produced no sustained momentum to alter the ordering. With voting set for October 4, the pricing captures the narrow but persistent regional advantage for the incumbent amid otherwise competitive national conditions.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Volume
$26,857Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a 70% implied probability in this Amazonas first-round market, reflecting trader consensus on his structural edge from Workers’ Party organization and consistent interior support across recent state polls. Flavio Bolsonaro sits at 28% as the primary challenger from the PL, though Amazonas-specific surveys from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and AtlasIntel in August and September show the two candidates within or near the margin of error in first-round scenarios, with Lula often ahead on interior votes offsetting capital dynamics. A fragmented field of lower-polling names such as Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema has produced no sustained momentum to alter the ordering. With voting set for October 4, the pricing captures the narrow but persistent regional advantage for the incumbent amid otherwise competitive national conditions.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$26,857Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula holds a 70% implied probability in this Amazonas first-round market, reflecting trader consensus on his structural edge from Workers’ Party organization and consistent interior support across recent state polls. Flavio Bolsonaro sits at 28% as the primary challenger from the PL, though Amazonas-specific surveys from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and AtlasIntel in August and September show the two candidates within or near the margin of error in first-round scenarios, with Lula often ahead on interior votes offsetting capital dynamics. A fragmented field of lower-polling names such as Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema has produced no sustained momentum to alter the ordering. With voting set for October 4, the pricing captures the narrow but persistent regional advantage for the incumbent amid otherwise competitive national conditions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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