**Yoon Suk-yeol remains in custody following multiple convictions tied to his December 2024 martial law declaration and related charges.** South Korean courts have imposed a life sentence for insurrection/rebellion, upheld a seven-year term by the Supreme Court for obstruction and document forgery, added a 30-year sentence for an alleged drone operation linked to North Korea, and handed down a two-year term for poll manipulation. These rulings, finalized or under limited appeal as of mid-2026, establish substantial barriers to early release. Yoon has been detained since his July 2025 rearrest, with extensions granted through at least early 2026 on evidence-preservation grounds. Appeals processes, including for the life sentence, have not produced interim relief, and South Korea’s judicial norms for high-profile political cases rarely allow release pending such extensive final or upheld penalties. No verified developments since the July 2026 Supreme Court decision indicate imminent release or successful bail motions. Traders’ strong consensus on “No” (92.8% implied probability) aligns with these confirmed outcomes and the timeline to 2027, reflecting the cumulative weight of convictions and procedural realities rather than any single event. Scheduled appeals or further trials could theoretically alter the path, but current evidence shows no near-term catalyst for custody ending before the end of 2026.