Recent polls position Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party at 22–24 Knesset seats in the October 27, 2026 election, aligning with an 18–20% vote share and explaining the 53% trader probability on that outcome. Yashar has maintained a lead or near-tie with Likud amid ongoing voter shifts from other opposition lists, bolstered by Eisenkot’s profile as former IDF chief of staff and surplus-vote agreements with the Democrats. Latest surveys from Channel 12, Channel 13, and others show the party holding steady above the 3.25% threshold while bloc dynamics remain fluid, with neither major grouping securing an automatic 61-seat majority. Minor recent developments, including coalition negotiations and threshold-party movements, have not materially altered Yashar’s projected range.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano18-20% 48%
16-18% 31%
<16% 23%
24%+ 17%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 30, 2026
<16%
15%
16-18%
26%
18-20%
52%
20-22%
13%
22-24%
4%
24%+
26%
18-20% 48%
16-18% 31%
<16% 23%
24%+ 17%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 30, 2026
<16%
$51 Wol.
15%
16-18%
$54 Wol.
26%
18-20%
$165 Wol.
52%
20-22%
$71 Wol.
13%
22-24%
$91 Wol.
4%
24%+
$136 Wol.
26%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls position Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party at 22–24 Knesset seats in the October 27, 2026 election, aligning with an 18–20% vote share and explaining the 53% trader probability on that outcome. Yashar has maintained a lead or near-tie with Likud amid ongoing voter shifts from other opposition lists, bolstered by Eisenkot’s profile as former IDF chief of staff and surplus-vote agreements with the Democrats. Latest surveys from Channel 12, Channel 13, and others show the party holding steady above the 3.25% threshold while bloc dynamics remain fluid, with neither major grouping securing an automatic 61-seat majority. Minor recent developments, including coalition negotiations and threshold-party movements, have not materially altered Yashar’s projected range.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Rynek otwarty: Sep 8, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
Wolumen
$568Data zakończenia
Nov 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 8, 2026, 4:16 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls position Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party at 22–24 Knesset seats in the October 27, 2026 election, aligning with an 18–20% vote share and explaining the 53% trader probability on that outcome. Yashar has maintained a lead or near-tie with Likud amid ongoing voter shifts from other opposition lists, bolstered by Eisenkot’s profile as former IDF chief of staff and surplus-vote agreements with the Democrats. Latest surveys from Channel 12, Channel 13, and others show the party holding steady above the 3.25% threshold while bloc dynamics remain fluid, with neither major grouping securing an automatic 61-seat majority. Minor recent developments, including coalition negotiations and threshold-party movements, have not materially altered Yashar’s projected range.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Wolumen
$568Data zakończenia
Nov 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 8, 2026, 4:16 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls position Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party at 22–24 Knesset seats in the October 27, 2026 election, aligning with an 18–20% vote share and explaining the 53% trader probability on that outcome. Yashar has maintained a lead or near-tie with Likud amid ongoing voter shifts from other opposition lists, bolstered by Eisenkot’s profile as former IDF chief of staff and surplus-vote agreements with the Democrats. Latest surveys from Channel 12, Channel 13, and others show the party holding steady above the 3.25% threshold while bloc dynamics remain fluid, with neither major grouping securing an automatic 61-seat majority. Minor recent developments, including coalition negotiations and threshold-party movements, have not materially altered Yashar’s projected range.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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