Congress has a decades-long record of raising or suspending the debt ceiling nearly 80 times since 1960, including a $5 trillion increase in July 2025 that set the current $41.1 trillion limit. Credit rating agencies maintain stable outlooks, citing expectations of timely bipartisan action to avoid market disruption and higher borrowing costs. The next limit breach is projected for late 2026 or 2027, after which Treasury extraordinary measures typically provide several additional months before any payment risk. Traders assign 97% probability to no default by 2027 because repeated past resolutions and shared incentives to protect Treasury market functioning and economic stability outweigh brinkmanship risks. Even so, an unprecedented prolonged impasse or major fiscal shock could still shift outcomes before the 2027 horizon.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
3% szansa
$18,051 Wol.
$18,051 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
3% szansa
$18,051 Wol.
$18,051 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress has a decades-long record of raising or suspending the debt ceiling nearly 80 times since 1960, including a $5 trillion increase in July 2025 that set the current $41.1 trillion limit. Credit rating agencies maintain stable outlooks, citing expectations of timely bipartisan action to avoid market disruption and higher borrowing costs. The next limit breach is projected for late 2026 or 2027, after which Treasury extraordinary measures typically provide several additional months before any payment risk. Traders assign 97% probability to no default by 2027 because repeated past resolutions and shared incentives to protect Treasury market functioning and economic stability outweigh brinkmanship risks. Even so, an unprecedented prolonged impasse or major fiscal shock could still shift outcomes before the 2027 horizon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Wolumen
$18,051Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress has a decades-long record of raising or suspending the debt ceiling nearly 80 times since 1960, including a $5 trillion increase in July 2025 that set the current $41.1 trillion limit. Credit rating agencies maintain stable outlooks, citing expectations of timely bipartisan action to avoid market disruption and higher borrowing costs. The next limit breach is projected for late 2026 or 2027, after which Treasury extraordinary measures typically provide several additional months before any payment risk. Traders assign 97% probability to no default by 2027 because repeated past resolutions and shared incentives to protect Treasury market functioning and economic stability outweigh brinkmanship risks. Even so, an unprecedented prolonged impasse or major fiscal shock could still shift outcomes before the 2027 horizon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Wolumen
$18,051Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Congress has a decades-long record of raising or suspending the debt ceiling nearly 80 times since 1960, including a $5 trillion increase in July 2025 that set the current $41.1 trillion limit. Credit rating agencies maintain stable outlooks, citing expectations of timely bipartisan action to avoid market disruption and higher borrowing costs. The next limit breach is projected for late 2026 or 2027, after which Treasury extraordinary measures typically provide several additional months before any payment risk. Traders assign 97% probability to no default by 2027 because repeated past resolutions and shared incentives to protect Treasury market functioning and economic stability outweigh brinkmanship risks. Even so, an unprecedented prolonged impasse or major fiscal shock could still shift outcomes before the 2027 horizon.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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