Persistent deficits projected by the Congressional Budget Office at roughly $1.9 trillion for fiscal year 2026, driven by mandatory spending on Social Security and Medicare plus rising net interest costs exceeding $1 trillion annually, continue to push total federal debt and debt held by the public higher. The 2025 reconciliation measure raised the debt limit by $5 trillion, yet borrowing has already consumed most of that headroom, with analysts estimating contact with the limit between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Current policy baselines show debt held by the public rising steadily from around 100 percent of GDP in 2026 toward 120 percent by 2036, without scheduled offsets or spending reductions sufficient to produce a near-term peak. Traders therefore assess the probability of any reversal before 2027 as low absent major legislative or economic shifts.